Let's talk about Trump's farmer bailout failing to solve the problem.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's farmer bailout failing to solve the problem.

Trump has always talked about his love of farmers. When announcing the bailout, he said, "We're going to make them so strong that it will be indeed a golden age for farmers." He knows the demographic is critical to the Republican coalition and once said, "I won the farmers by 92% and I'm not going to be abandoning my farmers.”

So, now that the details are out about the bailout, how is the Golden Age coming along? Not so great. Turns out that regardless of the percentage of a demographic that votes for him, he might just not care. As we discussed when he made the announcement, it's not enough. The $12 billion bailout also wasn't all going to the farmers who thought they were getting it. When it's all said and done, soybean farmers will get $30.88 per acre and corn farmers will receive $44.36 per acre. That's based off a USDA production cost figure. That of course doesn't really seem to take the extra cost farmers have to pay because of Trump's tariffs into account.

The bailout payments will also be kept at $155,000 and will only be available to farms that make less than $900,000 in adjusted gross income. But last time, Trump's policies hurt the agriculture industry enough to need bailouts. Some of the large farms found ways to gain the payment limits.

So Trump's trade war cost American farmers market share again. The bailout isn't enough again. And the administration's promises to soybean farmers about China buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of the year turned out to be organic fertilizer. Well, that's not really true. Fertilizer has worth. The new promise from the administration is that China will buy the soybeans by February. By my napkin math, China would need to buy 5 million metric tons. That's not impossible. But it's worth noting that China still has refused to confirm that they ever agreed to what the Trump administration is claiming.

It's worth noting that in total farm losses for this year are being estimated to be somewhere between $35 billion and $44 billion for the nine major commodity crops according to the Agriculture Risk Policy Center at North Dakota State University. So Trump's bailout is at best a third of what's needed to clean up his own mess.

Shortly before the end of his term, the American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland said, "This is a band-aid on an open wound and again, we're thankful that there's something that will help keep some farms in business, but what we truly need are market-based solutions.” He went on to say that farmers are “hoping to turn the tide. We need opportunity. The American farmer is the best in the world. We simply need a level playing field both for our cost of production and making sure that we don't have obstacles that are causing our exports to be hindered. The obstacles created by Trump's trade policies are weakening the American farmer both internationally and domestically.” Ragland also warned that without a shift, the US is heading to a “1980s type farm crisis.” That would be the crisis that led to massive foreclosures because hundreds of thousands of farmers defaulted on loans, which in turn led to bank failures. Truly a Golden Age.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.