Let's talk about the Senate moving on DHS funding and what's next.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about the Senate moving on DHS funding and what's next.

Around 3:30 in the morning on Thursday, the Senate adopted a budget resolution to move forward with funding parts of DHS related to immigration without the help of Democrats. There's already a lot of confusion about what actually happened. In a 50 to 48 vote, the Senate adopted a resolution. They did not pass a budget.

Republican senators Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski broke ranks and voted against the resolution. Again, this is not a funding package. This is the first step in starting the budget reconciliation process. There will be an explainer below on this little congressional maneuver. It's the same thing Republicans used to push their one Big Beautiful Bill through. We see the success that is.

The Republican victory being celebrated is just the first phase of the process and not really even through that yet because the House also has to pass a budget resolution before it can go to legislative draft, then committee for markup, then floor debate and vote in both houses, then the Byrd bath process in the Senate. After all that, it can get final passage.

A better term for passing a budget resolution would be they agreed on instructions to start the process. Trump wants this wrapped up by June 1st. Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota seemed to pour a little cold water on Trump's timeline when he said, “We have a multi-step process ahead of us, but at the end, Republicans will have helped ensure that America's borders are secure."

But Trump's biggest problem might not be timeline related. It might be Republicans on the other side of Capitol Hill. A lot of House Republicans are already signaling their skepticism to a reconciliation package focused solely on immigration and they aren't just fringe Republicans.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington of Texas said he wasn't sure the House would go for this unless they believed there was yet another reconciliation, they could push through to dump more money into defense. His exact words were, "If they feel like there's only one chance, they're going to want more. I have an equal number of people saying, you know, do you really think we're going to get a third? Should we go ahead and just load it up with more reforms?”

The Republican majority in the House is thin. If there are even a couple of holdouts, this is over before it starts and instructions are finalized. Aside from the internal divisions, Republicans have two other issues.

This process is being used because congressional Republicans refused to reform immigration activities, which is something most Americans want. They also had to vote against a number of affordability related amendments to keep their instructions simple. Expect to see those votes on mailers during the midterms.

So, Republicans didn't pass funding for ICE. It's really not even the start of the process to pass funding. This is the beginning of a process that could theoretically lead to funding, but it'll take a minute and be a drain on Republicans whose voters want them to work on lowering costs, not spending $70 billion more.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.