Let's talk about food prices and record breaking drought.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about food prices and record-breaking drought.

We recently talked about the multiple factors putting upward price pressure on food prices and how they don't really show signs of easing up anytime soon. There's another one that's going to hit food prices and it's probably something worth paying attention to because it's something that will become the new normal if we don't act or worse, we could look back on it fondly.

Drought in the contiguous United States has reached levels never before recorded. More than 60% of the lower 48 states is currently experiencing moderate to exceptional drought. Odds are that if you live in the South, you're in drought conditions because 97% of the Southeast is, about 2/3 of the West is. That's according to the University of Nebraska Lincoln's National Drought Mitigation Center. It's reportedly the highest levels of drought seen since the drought monitor started more than 25 years ago.

But it's actually worse than that. The Palmer Drought Severity Index by NOAA has data going back to 1895. This is the worst March on record so far. Even if you forget about an apples to apples comparison and compare March to any month since 1895, it's the third driest. The months that were drier occurred during that period of American history we call the Dust Bowl back in 1934.

Drought is bad for crops. Things that are bad for crops reduce yields. Things that reduce yields decrease supply which means the price goes up. So, this is a whole new issue and reason for holding expectations of continued price increases. This is one that is legitimately not Trump's fault, but it will get worse in the future because of Trump rolling back environmental protections, but the drought presents issues beyond food price increases.

The water shortage in the southwestern United States is going to be exacerbated by continued drought and an accompanying heat wave that is likely to appear. If you get water from the Colorado River, there are likely to be some pretty major complications, especially given the current state of cooperation between the states. The reservoirs are not full.

Another major issue is wildfire season. It starts next month in the US, even though it normally doesn't peak until August. If you live in an area prone to wildfires, or to be honest, live remotely close to an area prone to wildfires, it's probably pretty advisable to do your prep work early and go over your evacuation plans again. Everything is dry and in some areas the drought may cause issues getting water for fighting any fire that does start.

There's going to be a lot of worry about this summer. We're also less than convinced FEMA will help. Best to start mitigating what you can now.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.