52-48 is my optimistic goal.
We knock off that senator that LOVES to tell everyone how deep her concern is.
We somehow manage to hold Georgia. Otherwise that's that.

1. Four will be tough. There are golden pickup opportunities in NC and Maine. Ohio, if Sherrod runs and Trump is unpopular, we have a shot, but it's probably 50/50 at best. Anywhere else would take a pretty noticeable upset to win.

2. NC and Maine

3. Ossoff is really the only one, and that's if Kemp runs. But in a blue midterm, Ossoff should still be a soft favorite.

4. Texas and Florida, definitely. Potentially Iowa as well, it looks tempting, but it's hard to see it swinging far enough left to flip unless Trump's tariff's absolutely decimate farmers.

1) I think it's more like 20-80 we lose. The new Senator from Ohio is very popular (he won big bin his last election) and not nearly as polarizing and Moreno is and Vance was.

2) Agree, especially in NC (Collins is fairly popular, has been opposing Trump, and somehow finds a way to win).

3) I think if it's Kemp, we have to worry. Send every dime to that race and not get overconfident. Maybe Michigan now too a little, since Gary Peters isn't running for reelection. Don't get me wrong though, I still think we are a favorite to win. Maybe VA and NH will be close, but if and only if Youngkin and Sununu run.

4) Yeah, agreed.

1) No.
2) Maine assuming Collins does not run, Alaska if Murkowski does run but not on the R ticket. Stretch would be NC (tillis).
3) Jon Ossoff is highly endangered (under 50% likelyhood of reelection IMO). Peters in MI is safer but still in danger. Stretch would be VA if Warner does not run.
4) The only states I would put money into on 'offence' is Maine and NC. I would save the bulk of the money for defense but if funds are thin cuff off Ossoff.

This is as of today. If President Trumps action cause (further) chaos and the public turns on him by 2026 then the map obviously expands for D senate pickups.

This also assumes there will be midterms .....

1) Agreed
2) Murkowski is not up in 2026
3) Especial if Kemp runs in GA. Since Peters isn't running anymore, do you think it changes anything? Youngkin running in VA could be worrisome.
4) Agreed, and I would put money into several defensive states

He helps with at least having name recognition. I still think MI s safer than GA.

As of today, the Democrats would not be able to pick up 4 seats. But nobody knows at this point what may change over the next 2 years. If the Trump administration is as disastrous as many of us think it will be, that could open up the possibility of picking up seats that today we would not have a shot at.