Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search


bigtree's Journal
bigtree's Journal
July 22, 2024

Joyful Warrior arrives at Kamala HQ (gives campaign launch speech)

Madam Auntie VP Kamala Harris for PRESIDENT! @flywithkamala
The Vice President & Second Gentleman are now in Delaware to meet campaign staffers at the #KamalaHarris HQ.

Hunter Schwarz @hunterschwarz 59s
New "Kamala" logo as seen at the Harris campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware.



The Joyful Warrior arrives at Kamala HQ! #KamalaHarris2024


watch event:

July 22, 2024

VP Harris endorsement tally sf

Scott Dworkin @funder
BREAKING: Kamala Harris is now endorsed by 41 of 47 Dem Senators, 181 of 212 Dem Reps and 19 of 23 Dem Governors

Dworkin Substack:

UPDATE Endorsements for Harris:

Biden, Hillary and Bill Clinton, Pete Buttigieg, John Kerry

41 Senators: Baldwin, Bennet, Booker, Brown, Butler, Cantwell, Cardin, Carper, Casey, Coons, Cortez Masto, Duckworth, Durbin, Fetterman, Gillibrand, Hassan, Heinrich, Hickenlooper, Hirono, Kaine, Kelly, Klobuchar, Luján, Markey, Merkley, Murphy, Murray, Ossoff, Padilla, Peters, Rosen, Schatz, Shaheen, Smith, Stabenow, Van Hollen, Warner, Warnock, Warren, Whitehouse, Wyden

181 US Reps (updating list): Aguilar, Allred, Amo, Auchincloss, Balint, Barragán, Beatty, Bera, Beyer, Blunt Rochester, Bonamici, Bowman, Boyle, Brown, Brownley, Budzinski, Bush, Caraveo, Carbajal, Carson, Carter, Cartwright, Casar, Casten, Castor, Castro, Cherfilus-McCormick, Chu, Clark, Clarke, Cleaver, Clyburn, Cohen, Connolly, Courtney, Craig, Crockett, Crow, Davis, Dean, DeGette, DeLauro, DelBene, Deluzio, DeSaulnier, Dingell, Escobar, Evans, Fletcher, Foster, Frankel, Frost, Gallego, Garamendi, C. García, R. Garcia, S. Garcia, Goldman, Gomez, Gottheimer, Grijalva, Hayes, Horsford, Houlahan, Hoyer, Hoyle, Huffman, Ivey, Jeff Jackson, Jonathan Jackson, Jacobs, Jayapal, Johnson, Kamlager, Keating, Kelly, Khanna, Kildee, Kim, Krishnamoorthi, Landsman, Barbara Lee, Summer Lee, Susie Lee, Leger Fernandez, Levin, Lieu, Magaziner, Manning, Matsui, McBath, McClellan, McCollum, McGarvey, McGovern, McClellan, McColum, McLane Kuster, Meeks, Menendez, Meng, Mfume, Moore, Morelle, Moskowitz, Moulton, Mullin, Nadler, Neal, Neguse, Norcross, Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pallone, Pappas, Pascrell, Pelosi, Pettersen, Pingree, Pocan, Porter, Pressley, Quigley, Ramirez, Raskin, Ross, Ruiz, Ruppersberger, Ryan, Salinas, Sánchez, Sarbanes, Scanlon, Schakowsky, Schiff, Schneider, Scholten, Scott, Sewell, Sherman, Sherrill, Slotkin, Smith, Sorensen, Soto, Spanberger, Stansbury, Stanton, Stevens, Strickland, Swalwell, Sykes, Takano, Thanedar, Bennie Thompson, Mike Thompson, Titus, Tokuda, Tonko, Norma Torres, Ritchie Torres, Trahan, Trone, Underwood, Vasquez, Veasey, Velázquez, Wasserman Schultz, Waters, Watson Coleman, Wexton, Wild, Williams, Wilson

21 Governors: Beshear (KY), Carney (DE), Cooper (NC), Evers (WI), Green (HI), Healey (MA), Hochul (NY), Inslee (WA), Kelly (KS), Kotek (OR), Lamont (CT), Lujan Grisham (NM), Mills (ME), Moore (MD), Murphy (NJ), Newsom (CA), Polis (CO), Pritzker (IL), Shapiro (PA), Walz (MN), Whitmer (MI)

Almost all 50 Democratic party state chairs—some couldn’t vote for procedural reasons.

National Dem convention delegates from MD, NC, NH, TN and Denton County, TX unanimously voted, FL, Louisiana and SC voted to endorse and commit to Kamala Harris

Groups: AAPI Victory Fund, Congressional Black Caucus, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Emily’s List, End Citizens United, Haley Voters for Harris (formerly Nikki Haley Voters PAC), Human Rights Campaign, MoveOn, NewDem Action Fund, Young Democrats of America


AP Delegate Tracker:

1,976 needed for nomination


1,152 (and climbing)



July 22, 2024

AP's Democratic Delegate Tracker (Harris/Undecided)

I held back on relying on this AP one this morning when it looked to be behind several others, but they've updated since.

This one has a delegate by state tracker, too.

I saw one report that said VP Harris expects to have this locked down by Wednesday, but I'd think sooner than that.

AP's delegate survey here: https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/

Associated Press survey finds that Kamala Harris has the early backing of many of those convention delegates. Unlike AP’s count of delegates won during the primaries, this survey of delegates is an incomplete and unofficial tally. Following Biden’s decision to leave the race, delegates may vote for the candidate of their choice at the convention.

Under current party rules, a candidate will need the support of 1,976 delegates on the first ballot of the convention to win the nomination. AP will continuously update the survey leading into the opening of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19 in Chicago.

...right now:


1,976 needed for nomination


792 (and climbing since I've been fumbling with this post)



link: https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/
July 17, 2024

Respondents are being led by the pollsters to believe the selection process is open, and a dream candidate exists

...that makes these 'Democrats' expressing preference for another nominee in these surveys nothing more than a fantasy exercise.

The concern here isn't Joe Biden's fitness as president, at least that's the most blatantly absurd concern out there as we can all see Joe Biden doing the job of president with distinction, grace, and intelligence.

The main concern expressed, however contradictory to critic's and doubters' public bashing of the president, is that he can't beat Trump.

The surveys and the responses are little more than an artificially constructed bedwetter's clearinghouse for apathetic and ridiculously self-actualizing fears.

Joe Biden will be nominated before or during the convention. There is no other candidate who has even hinted of their desire or intent to challenge the votes which the president's delegates will represent at the convention in far greater numbers than any other person has or will be able to organize in these few short weeks.

The general election in November will be a binary choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. A sucessful incumbent, and a convicted felon.

I personally resent whoever is scheming to undo my vote.

I chose Joe Biden to run in this election, and it's more than a little discouraging to see so many in our own party do nothing but tear at his candidacy.

No candidate from them, no actual plan to win anything because, they're angling to completely subvert the democratic process of elections, pretending that our votes can be represented by shifting allegiances of delegates at the convention.

It's a small tyranny that's occurring with so many elected officials using the heavy hand of their offices to bear down on the people's choice. Joe Biden is running against the media, Trump, and members of his own party.

What makes anyone believe that another candidate, standing in the place of an effectively lame-duck president if he withdrew, would fare any better against the sly and pervasive opposition coming from all quarters right now?

Where's their record of accomplishment? Where's their experience in the complex world of affairs, both foreign and domestic?

Where do their allegiances lie? Do they represent the minority and women voters who put their faith in Joe Biden as president to effect their interests and ideals? Or will they compromise on those in a backward attempt to cover ground Joe Biden has already covered in a full primary?

How does a new candidate generate the support needed to win, against all of the same forces and more that Joe Biden is weathering right now, and organize their campaign in all 50 states with volunteer, canvassers, and advocates, all of whom are now operating out of over 100 field offices in support of the president?

Replacing Joe Biden right now is not only an abomination of democracy, it's foolishness and fantasy. You won't find that truth anywhere in these surveys. They're not designed or formatted in any way for supporters of President Biden.

They're designed to oppose him in this election, and that's the result they're prioritizing for the public participants in their fantasy election game.

July 10, 2024

If you're not presenting Democrats who've already voted with a candidate AND a plan, you're just trolling them

...knocking and yanking voters around, gaslighting Democrats who already chose Joe Biden to run in this election like you're in the opposition.

You might as well be, if you're on a whispering campaign trying to slyly undo the results of a primary election they had every chance of running in or challenging Joe Biden with their candidate.

As Joe Biden reminded Democrats in Congress in his letter which every one of them opened in their inbox and read Monday morning:

"This was a process open to anyone who wanted to run. Only three people chose to challenge me. One fared so badly that he left the primaries to run as an independent. Another attacked me for being too old and was soundly defeated. The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party.

We had a Democratic nomination process and the voters have spoken clearly and decisively. I received over 14 million votes, 87% of the votes cast across the entire nominating process. I have nearly 3,000 delegates, making me the presumptive nominee of our party by a wide margin.

Do we now just say this process didn’t matter? That the voters don’t have a say?

I decline to do that. I feel a deep obligation to the faith and the trust the voters of the Democratic Party have placed in me to run this year. It was their decision to make. Not the press, not the pundits, not the big donors, not any selected group of individuals, no matter how well intentioned. The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that."

What President Biden left unsaid was the outrageous reality that NONE of these politicians who worked up their statements of regret, reconsideration, or remorse at the voter's choice in this election asked our opinion or permission, they're just roiling democracy in their own individual interests, not in some defense of the party or presidency.

We don't establish or defend presidencies in the U.S. by fiat of the political class. It's not populism to align yourself with the political elite as they work to undermine votes cast and won, many of those agreeing with their efforts even more amenable to their entreaties to undo the votes of millions of Democrats the more prominent and famous the opposition.

This movement against Joe Biden is without question, openly anti-voter, but it's also a tyranny against the democratic system of elections. It's an end run around the primary election system which was supposed to represent OUR participation in choosing our candidate in this election.

We already chose, but these pols and others are addressing Joe Biden as if he's supposed to give them cover for their sly scheme. We see them out here. Voters see these people who believe our votes are to be traded away by millionaires both in and out of office who use their elevated positions, OUR offices of government, as well, to attempt to speak over Democratic voters and down to them.

That's who these folks who are whispering that all of this undermining of democracy is normal and necessary are sidling up to, and cajoling others to just give in on behalf of.

Not the American people, but a handful of elite millionaires in and out of government who never asked one voter for their permission or support to relinquish our democratic rights. They never asked one of us if it was fine for them to meddle with votes cast (and it's too damn late now).

They just got in our faces and insisted it should be done.

That's not democracy in any form. It's authoritarianism and worse, and they will have to live with THAT abomination of democracy they participated in, whatever the outcome of this election.
July 10, 2024

How useful are early summer polls? About as useful as a groundhog with the weather.

NPR Illinois | By A.J. Simmons
Published June 5, 2024

I've previously delved into reading the early tea leaves about the November 2024 U.S. election, but I left out one crucial area: polling. I did so because March was way too early to be trying to make predictions based on polling. Even though we’re now a few months down the line, I hate to break it to you, and a lot of folks, but it’s still too early to be paying attention to polling! For your own sanity, I recommend you stop paying attention to polls until after Labor Day once Election Season (the nerdiest of all the sports seasons), and particularly the post-season kicks off. To put it in sports terms, traditionally the end of the major party conventions is Opening Day, post-season starts after Labor Day, and the championship round start in October. You don't have to take my word for it. Let’s look at polling data since 1980.

In six of the past 11 elections, early summer polling either got the ultimate winner “wrong”, though I’m not a huge fan of that language as opinion likely genuinely shifted, or showed a tie. Basically, early polling is about as accurate as a weather forecast from a groundhog when it comes to reflecting the winner. By September, this number drops to four out of 11. Once we reach October, only three out of 11 polls either got the winner “wrong” or showed a tie. In the two ties, the eventual winner caught up to the early “leader” by October. Further the two late polling ties proceeded election results with the popular vote and electoral college splitting, suggesting close elections make for difficult polling (and polls that have results within the margin of error are not “wrong”). Basically, polls in October do a better job of reflecting the eventual winner, but are not perfect as polls are not forecasts.

So, why might polling be less useful now than in four months? For starters, depending on the poll, about 10% to 20% of voters are still undecided. That's a significant portion of the electorate still deciding! Especially considering this election will likely come down to a few percentage points in a handful of states. I’d like to see more polling firms ask follow-up questions to undecided voters about which direction they’re leaning, especially as the election approaches. It may be that undecided voters strongly overlap with those who dislike both Presidents Biden and Trump. The critical question then becomes who they dislike more. As I’ve written about elsewhere, strength of dislike is a powerful motivator of vote choice these days considering voters dislike just about everything and everyone.

...remember that polls are not elections, and we're still five months out. A lot can change in that time. There is still time for an “October Surprise” (along with a June, July, August, September, and early November one). Considering the impact of major events on recent presidential elections, including the late October 2016 announcement from the FBI regarding Secretary Clinton’s emails and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a lot can happen between now and November that may mean polling now does not match the result later this year.

In summary, using current polling to predict the election is like predicting a sports championship before the season starts. We’re still in the pre-season of the November 2024 election, so no matter who is “up” in the polls no one is “losing” or “winning”, no matter what your favorite cable news talking head is saying. Regardless of which campaign you support, don’t overreact to current polls. 2024 is most likely going to be a close one and surveys are allowed to have margins of errors, with several key states likely to have results reasonably within those margins of errors (which will probably be ignored by some prominently loud voices post-election). Plus, keep in mind that the further we are from the election, the higher the uncertainty in polling results. Otherwise, we’d be teaching about the Ross Perot administration in high school history. I must have missed that day.

July 6, 2024

No matter what, we need to vote in this upcoming election. "Don't Hold Grudges"

...against any eventual Democratic nominee

I was a little taken aback by a reply to a post of mine with an article calling Dems who try to oust Pres. Biden from the race, 'traitors.'

I'm already a little uneasy about representing that Politicus opinion piece here, but I think it's pretty sound.

What I'm even more concerned about is the anger I feel toward Dem legislators and others trying to bully Joe Biden out of the race is primarily based on two things.

1. The prospect of backdoor negotiations to second guess an actual democratic process that included an election and supplant our choice to run against Trump with their personal fav.

2. The way I believe that effort would lead to not only the collapse of a wildly successful Democratic presidency, but the disruption and evisceration of our chances to beat Trump.

I really don't want to argue those on this thread.

I want to advise those who feel as I do to make certain that, no matter what happens, they don't neglect to cast a ballot for our eventual Democratic nominee in November.

I understand the anger and frustration. I'm boiling over with it. But my ultimate goal is to beat Trump, not feather and nurse my own personal resentments.

Remember how hard the VP campaigned against her boss? I remember at one debate between the two there was a photo of close up of a notecard in Joe Biden's hand that read, "don't hold grudges."

That's what Joe Biden would have us do on his behalf, and ours as well. Fight these battles to keep us in a position to defeat Trump (hopefully still with the person we voted for), and move forward.

Remember that and vote for the Democratic nominee in November.

July 3, 2024

I'm occasionally asked by posters to clarify some scandalous report or other, and I just don't get it

...the right wing is working overtime with innuendo and outright falsities against Joe Biden and Democrats. They have little to nothing real to talk about so they just talk endlessly about their own projections.

On the other hand, Democrats have reams of ammunition based on actual Trump and republican statements, actions, and the scandals that erupt almost every day.

As advocates, it makes little sense to try and hew to some absolute truth of his depravity. He's a convicted felon, a convicted tax fraud, found liable for repeatedly defaming the woman he sexually assaulted.

We're not reporters, at least the vast majority of us. We're advocates in a campaign to end Donald Trump's political life, and it's a little bit of a desperate enterprise.

He does not deserve anyone here trying to put some fine point on scandalous reports about him in any way that minimizes the impression that these media revelations produces in the voting public. That's not in our interest.

If you ask me as a voter if Donald Trump is a rapist, I'll answer affirmatively, yes. Not based on any rape conviction that might occur, but on my own impression of the reports about him, and my willingness to accept that he's a despicable man capable and willing to do such a horrendous thing.

I mean, I can understand that some people here want to nail it all down to a fine point, but I think that's not only a waste of political time, it's affording Trump benefit of the doubt he doesn't deserve.

If there's a report that Trump raped someone, it's a sure bet to me that he likely did, no matter if the reports haven't nailed him down. It's just that simple. And that's how I'm determined to campaign against him.

I don't think there's anything beyond his conscience he won't anyway do, and I don't believe we've been privileged to the half of what he's guilty of by the press.

Don't come at me, a private citizen posting here, with some defense that minimizes reports. Don't ask me to clarify something so obviously damaging to him in some way that minimizes it. It's of no interest to me, and it's antithetical to advocating against this monster.

July 2, 2024

Has there ever been a leader of a major nation who publicly disavowed enhanced powers afforded them?

...like President Biden did this evening?

I was immediately taken aback by the visage of arguably the most powerful leader in the world declining the false authority he apparently would be the beneficiary of by the Roberts Court's rogue efforts to shield Donald Trump from legal consequences for his actions.

It was stunning and inspiring to watch. I'm not sure how many viewers appreciated that principled and selfless gesture for what it means for the defense of our democracy.

Joe Biden, as president, is planting shade trees for America that he'll likely never sit under. That's a beautiful and heartening thing. I've never seen a leader like this in my lifetime.

July 1, 2024

All that's happened has the feel of a hostile takeover of the nation

___The rulers of such a state are absolute, as the Pharaohs or the Caesars could not be. They are obliged to prevent their followers from starving to death in numbers large enough to be inconvenient. -Orwell, 1984

Watching the news practically non-stop today, there's a seemingly endless stream of one after the other of our rights and expectations under the law muddled and put at risk by this politically craven, activist Roberts majority.

Most notably today is the way understandings in the law about defenses of our democracy have been treated by the maga majority as some kind of unwanted friend of the court brief.

It's eerie, but it feels like what a country like Russia must experience. We still have our election structure in place, and the citizenry is being encouraged to participate, but there's a growing realization that there's a barrier to our democracy in place that wasn't as apparent in past elections.

Ever since the SCOTUS decided Bush v. Gore and determined the outcome of that election, there's been a wariness in the electorate about whether the Court would restrain themselves from using their almost unaccountable power to interfere. I'm guessing that was just a mirage or a faint.

This Roberts majority intends to rule the nation on every initiative, legislation, government action, or vote that they decide goes against their own political predilections, rather than the historic standard of precedence or even statutory interpretation.

The SCOTUS picks and chooses the cases they hear. That's what makes it so glaring that almost all of their cases taken and decisions made in this election season favor the republican candidate who appointed them to the bench, as well as hundreds of his cohorts who violently stormed the U.S. Capitol at his direction.

In today's ruling, the court stacked deck against Jack Smith's prosecution, tying his prosecutors hands and all but saying out loud that anything that made it back to them on appeal from their remand to District Court would not survive even further advantaging of their former presidential benefactor. Judge Chutkan is going to be reduced to choosing which decision she makes that she wants overturned.

Whatever is decided in the District courtroom, a certain appeal will send it all back to the Roberts court which has repeatedly minimized the Capitol invasion and Trump's role in all of that.

Notwithstanding the comity and fairness of this Supreme Court, which has shown absolutely none of that, the U.S is effectively an autocracy ultimately ruled by 9 (actually 6) unelected, star chamber justices.

Most Americans have never had to or bothered to pay any attention to the power these unelected, lifetime judges wield, or considered the inanity of just having the ONE major check on them; which is ludicrously dependent on the politics of the legislative body that would consider whether to proceed to the ultimate punishment for justices which is impeachment.

Will the nation drift along in this state of denial about the utter collapse of checks and balances for just one political party, much like people who live in autocracies with faux democracies like Russia?

As we go to the polls in November, we'll literally be voting to hold onto what's left of our nation that still belongs to us.

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Maryland
Member since: Sun Aug 17, 2003, 11:39 PM
Number of posts: 87,841
Latest Discussions»bigtree's Journal