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Silent3

(15,909 posts)

17. Serious news orgs don't call the race until they reach 270+ with called states

Reply to NurseJackie (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:34 AM

Oct 2020

I believe a clear victory is possible on election night, but not one that will get "called".

I don't think AP or the networks will call the race until they've called enough individual states to reach an electoral vote tally of 270 or more.

I also think vote tallying will be slowed down a lot by all of the mail-in votes in many swing states, so getting enough data to call 270 EVs-worth of states might take a few days.

For my own part, however, I'll personally call it for Biden with 90% confidence if Biden wins Florida. If we're lucky and Biden wins Texas, which we could well know by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, I'll be 99.9% sure Biden has won so well that nothing Trump and his minions try to do with court challenges can steal the race any more.

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Highlight:

I believe the AP (& networks) will be able to declare Biden's victory on election night.* (Do you?) [View all] NurseJackie Oct 2020 OP

9:30-10:00 EST NightWatcher Oct 2020 #1

AS soon as the polls close on the West Coast. Zoonart Oct 2020 #2

I passed because I really have no clue what's going to happen. Hoping for a biden blowout win. dameatball Oct 2020 #3

So is it automatic win if he gets 270 or more? I hope I hope I hope I hope I hope I hope nt, mitch96 Oct 2020 #4

I think you are right. ucrdem Oct 2020 #5

Yes, especially if we win Florida and North Carolina. panader0 Oct 2020 #6

✔️ blm Oct 2020 #15

once Ca polls close at 10pm CST beachbumbob Oct 2020 #7

I think it will happen... Wounded Bear Oct 2020 #8

It'll be a... N_E_1 for Tennis Oct 2020 #9

How can they if some states don't even begin counting mail-in ballots until the next morning? catbyte Oct 2020 #10

Exactly. If Biden wins FL it will be an early night. Statistical Oct 2020 #13

In Michigan, mail in ballots will start be counted on election day. Kaleva Oct 2020 #14

New bill says cities with over 25,000 people can get a head start on the 2nd catbyte Oct 2020 #20

It'd be interesting to find out why some clerks aren't taking advantage of this. Kaleva Oct 2020 #21

Yep. The networks will call it for Biden shortly after CA polls close. Laelth Oct 2020 #11

Can't say. Depends on if Biden wins FL. Statistical Oct 2020 #12

Is it more mail in ballots? treestar Oct 2020 #16

Serious news orgs don't call the race until they reach 270+ with called states Silent3 Oct 2020 #17

CNN and MSNBC will call it for Biden, Fox will say trump won SoonerPride Oct 2020 #18

PA will not be called on Tues/Wed, but if Biden takes AZ, NV and NE2, he wins Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #19