My guess how the Ukraine-war will end: [View all]

I guess, it will go one or two more months. Putin flattens ukrainian cities with artillery while ukrainian guerillas keep blowing up tanks along the russian supply-lines.

In the end... Putin will retreat from Ukraine while making declarations of victory... and then he will invade Belarus.







It will go like this:

1.
* The material losses of Russia in terms of lost tanks and helicopters will become inacceptable.
* Additionally, Russia cannot hide the thousands of dead russian soldiers from its own people. (An irate russian TV-host shouted down a russian veteran who suggested to hold a minute of silence for the russian soldiers that have died in Ukraine.)
* Additionally, the economic sanctions are starting to hit average Russians: The panic-buying of food has begun.
* Additionally, the financial sanctions are hitting russian banks and oligarchs: The first russian financial entities are about to default on their debts... Which is entirely meaningless right now in the short term, but means MASSIVE legal and financial troubles in the future.

2. Putin will declare that his "special military operation" has reached their goal of exposing that Ukraine is ruled by Neo-Nazis and NATO hell-bent on destroying Russia with bio-weapons. BUT because Russia is such a SMART and PEACELOVING nation, Russia retreats from Ukraine from a war that NATO has forced on Russia.

3. An iron curtain will go up, with the excuse that peace-loving Russia has retreated from Ukraine in order to now prepare defences for THE INEVITABLE ONSLAUGHT OF THE NATO-NAZIS. (Nobody steal that band-name. I'm serious.) With this excuse, Putin's regime will wipe out the last remains of civil-rights and freedom of the press in Russia.

4. Russia already has soldiers in Belarus. Again, with this paranoid apocalyptic mindset as an excuse, Russia will declare that all true Russians must now stand together as one... and they will announce the formation of a new country, Novorossija ("New Russia" ) or something like that, which will in theory consist of Belarus and Russia joining together as equal partners, but in practice Russia will simply swallow Belarus.