General Discussion

Usually those hazzards have a range of reasonably predictable patterns that people get accustomed to and know how to handle. But occasionally, maybe once in a century, or once in 4 or 5 decades, an event occurs outside the usual parameters.

Here is just one example in Buffalo. They are used to lake effect snowstorms every year and blizzards about once or twice in a decade. They are equipped for handling those events. But in 2022, the US was hit with heavy snowfalls and severe temperature drops, starting in the west and moving eastward.

By Christmas, when the storm system reached Buffalo, it developed into a once in a generation bomb cyclone that lasted 4 days. Water from pre-blizzard rains froze instantly as temps dropped rapidly and winds rose to 80 mph with higher gusts. Blizzard conditions lasted for 37 hours. Lake effect snowfall continued for 4 days. Lake Erie waves several feet high were blown onto the shore where they instantly froze, layer after layer. Power substations froze solid. Roofs and sliding glass patio doors collapsed. The airport closed for 6 days.

I had lived through a bomb cyclone in Cleveland in January of 1978, so I recognized the warning signs in the Buffalo forecast for December 2022. But most people in the area did not. The NWS warnings about time of arrival were off a bit because conditions changed at the last minute. So thousands of people got caught in last minute Christmas shopping or stocking up for the storm.

It was a huge disaster. 47 people died.

Here on DU, armchair disaster "experts" harshly criticized the victims. The critics knew Buffalo's reputation for lake effect snow, so they "knew" that the victims "brought it on themselves." But that bomb cyclone was far outside the parameters of blizzards for the region. It was a combination of ice storm, lake effect snowfall, sub zero wind chills, and cyclonic winds (a land hurricane) all at once that lasted for 4 days. Holiday visitors from outside the region were caught unaware. Local people had never seen such a storm in their lives.

Similarly, California is used to earthquakes. Buildings are built to withstand them. Locals know how to behave in an earthquake. But if an 8.0 quake or higher ever hits LA or San Francisco, their preparedness would not be enough.