General Discussion

Turnout in 2016 was up in Trump counties than Clinton counties. One could just look at the blanket idea that turnout is up and think that's good for Dems.

But not always.

In 2016, turnout in Pennsylvania was up nearly four points over 2012, an election Obama won the state fairly comfortably.

Yet Trump won in 2016 with higher turnout.

Four years later, turnout was up 5 and he lost barely.

It all depends where that surge in turnout is coming from.

In 2020, Biden actually did worse percentage wise than Hillary in Philadelphia but netted more voters because turnout was higher there than in 2016.

If this person is in a county that Trump won by 40 points in 2020, higher turnout could hurt Democrats, especially if that turnout isn't being seen in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.