The Fourth Turning [View all]

The Fourth Turning is part of a cyclical view of history proposed by William Strauss and
Neil Howe in 1997. Each cycle lasts about 80-100 years and consists of four ~20-25 year
periods called "turnings".
The current cycle's turnings were:
High: Post-WWII era (1946-1964)
Awakening: Mid-1960s to early 1980s
Unraveling: Mid-1980s to mid-2000s
Crisis (Fourth Turning): 2008 to ~2030

Here are the key points about the current Fourth Turning:

Timing of the Current Fourth Turning
The Fourth Turning is believed to have started around 2008 and is expected to last until
approximately 2030.
Specifically:
- It likely began with the Great Recession of 2007-2009
- Some sources pinpoint 2008 as the start
- It is predicted to last until around 2027-2030
This means we are currently in the middle of the Fourth Turning crisis period.

Characteristics of the Current Fourth Turning
The current Fourth Turning is characterized by:
- Increased urgency, risk, and uncertainty
- Economic and institutional upheaval in the first half
- Potential for major societal realignment and rebuilding in the second half
- Rising autocracy and populism
- Hyper-partisan politics similar to the period between 1929-1945

Potential Outcomes
While the specific events can't be predicted, the authors suggest the Fourth Turning could lead to:
- Major economic restructuring
- Potential internal conflict or partial secession in the US
- Possible global armed conflict
- Significant societal and institutional changes
It's important to note that while these cycles provide a framework for understanding
historical patterns, they don't determine exact events. The authors emphasize that we can
learn from past cycles to better prepare for and navigate the current period of change.