General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: "But What About the Menzzzzzz?????" is the anguished cry after this travesty of an election. [View all]Self Esteem
(1,751 posts)Just look at Pennsylvania.
In 2020, Biden won Black voters 92-7.
In 2024, Harris won Black voters 89-10.
The Democrats went from a +85 margin in 2020 to +79 margin.
I don't find a six-point swing miniscule. That's pretty significant and probably why Harris lost Pennsylvania.
Harris did six-points worse than both Hillary and Biden among Black voters in Pennsylvania.
On top of that, Black voters were 11% of the voting population in Pennsylvania in 2020. Four years later? 7%.
So, not only was there a decrease in margins, Blacks made up four-points fewer of the overall vote than four years ago.
You couple that together and it's not miniscule. It's devastating and likely a direct reason she lost that state - including the significant shift among Hispanic voters.
In fact, Harris did BETTER in the margins vs white voters than Biden in 2020.
Trump won white PA voters 56-44 vs Harris. Against Biden? 57-42.
Trump went from +15 to +12 in four years.
Literally the reason Harris lost PA was because minority voters shifted to Trump. Had she won Black and Hispanic voters at the level Hillary did in 2016, she would have won Pennsylvania.