General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: "But What About the Menzzzzzz?????" is the anguished cry after this travesty of an election. [View all]Self Esteem
(1,751 posts)I pointed out Pennsylvania to show that you were wrong. It wasn't just one like you claimed.
Now we're at two.
Let's do Michigan next!
In 2020, Biden won the Black vote in Michigan 92-7. Harris? 87-11. So, we see a very similar shift like in PA. Biden was +85 and Harris +76. This time, though, the margin was bigger than a six-point swing. In overall margin, Harris did nine-points worse than Biden among Black voters there.
That's pretty significant.
Black turnout was also down, albeit not as much as in Pennsylvania. In 2020, they made up 12% of the Michigan electorate. In 2024? 11%.
Similarly, Harris actually improved among white voters compared to Biden. In 2020, Trump won white voters in Michigan 55-44. In 2024? 54-44. So, from +11 to +10. Not a significant difference but again, likely a state Harris wins if she equals Biden's total with Black voters from 2020.
That's now three states where there was a decent enough shift ... and lo and behold, that's the election right there. Harris wins all three and she wins the presidency.
In the three must-win states for the Harris campaign, they did worse among Black voters than Biden.
That's the story of the election. If Harris had done as well as Biden did among Black and Hispanic voters, she would have won the presidency.