Honestly Surprised By This Poll - Canadians And Europeans Are Not Our Enemies - Any One Disagree? [View all]

Last edited Wed Apr 2, 2025, 03:06 PM - Edit history (1)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP repeatedly claims that the European Union was “formed in order to screw the United States”. Canada, America’s northern neighbour and second-largest trading partner, is “one of the nastiest countries”. Russia was “doing what anyone would do” when it bombed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during a pause in American intelligence sharing. Our polling with YouGov shows how this rhetoric is reshaping people’s opinions about their countries’ allies.

Unsurprisingly, in America it is Republican opinions that have changed most dramatically since Mr Trump returned to office (see chart 1). Before the election our YouGov polling showed that just 12% of Republican voters thought that Canada was “unfriendly” or an “enemy”. In the most recent survey, which took place between March 22nd and 25th, that share more than doubled to 27% (these negative feelings were increasing before the election, too). Similarly, last year 17% of Republicans viewed the EU as “unfriendly” or as an “enemy”; that has now grown to 29%.

Perceptions of Russia are moving in the opposite direction. After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Americans were united in condemnation: around 85% of registered voters thought that Russia was “unfriendly” to or an “enemy” of America. That share remained steady until the presidential election in 2024. Then views split along party lines. Now 72% of Republican voters think Russia is a foe. Over the same period the share of Republicans who think Ukraine is hostile rose by ten percentage points (see chart 2).

More surprising is that even Democrats appear to be slowly softening towards Russia and becoming more suspicious of America’s long-standing allies. It is difficult to know yet whether these small changes are enduring shifts in opinion.