General Discussion

It wasn't just a few flubbed lines. It was a horrific, awful performance that shook the party to its core.

The revisionism here is astounding.

The party openly defied calls for Biden to step aside for a solid year, falling in line in 2023 and supporting him despite multiple polls showing him not only consistently losing to Trump but that the number one issue for Americans was his age. They spoke up to the media that they felt Biden was fine and had the physical and mental stamina to win in November. They pushed no viable primary challenge and basically made major party members promise not to support either RFK or Dean Phillips. The party did everything to show a united front with Biden despite the fact that by the eve of the debate, Biden trailed in nearly every poll nationally and in nearly every poll in each swing state, including by near-double digits in places like Nevada.

Biden's team continued to dismiss the concerns of the party - from people like Pelosi to Jeffries to senate candidates who were seeing their support stagnate.

Back in 2023 when Biden announced he was running for a second term, and the party near-universally lined up behind him, they did so because his team made some strong promises about how he would campaign. They promised he would run an aggressive, active coast-to-coast campaign where he was front and center proving he had the stamina needed to serve another four years. The party wanted commitments that he would hold rallies, town halls and do extensive media interviews so that they could put to rest the concerns polling had showed was his biggest vulnerability as a candidate.

They promised they would run the most aggressive, expansive reelection campaign to date.

The plan was to use the SOTU speech in early 2024 as his big kickoff. He and Harris would then do a multi-state tour hitting up Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They were expected to have full access for local media and rallies with supporters.

None of that materialized. Biden decided in the end that they would run a small, retail politics-oriented campaign where they'd forgo the media and rallies and instead hold retail events that got them out in front of voters.

It was not working. Biden's polling got progressively worse and the media started questioning his fitness even louder. The campaign was radio silent on the issue but continued to promise changes.

The big talking point from the campaign in early 2024 was that voters were not engaged in the election and didn't think Trump would be the nominee, especially with his legal troubles and because of that, they weren't fully committed to Biden. Once it became clear Trump was the nominee, they'd shift.

They didn't. Trump locked up the nomination and Biden continued to trail.

So, the campaign made another excuse when what they said would materialize didn't: voters still aren't engaged and once they become engaged, they'll remember how awful Trump is and the polling will shift.

Their idea to fast forward that engagement? Proposed an early summer debate. Trump had been crying about an earlier debate for weeks - so the Biden team decided to bite. They thought it was going to be the thing that turned the race in their favor. So, they made the proposal and Trump accepted.

The debate I don't need to get into. It was horrendous.

But it shook the party. It became clear Biden's campaign was collapsing. Internal polling, shared at party meetings each week, showed a significant drop - but worse for a lot of Democrats, it showed the party losing Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin senate seats.

That's when the noise started to pick up.

There was a real frustration within the party that the Biden team made promise after promise to alleviate their concerns about his age and they failed to meet them. The only reason the party lined up behind Biden was that they were promised an extremely active campaign where Biden would work to prove to the American people that he had the stamina and cognitive abilities to serve another four years. That was completely wiped out in one debate. Not only did Biden look confused, he looked exhausted and that was the image Democrats wanted to avoid.

On top of that, Democrats were angry that Biden refused to take the debate seriously. Unlikely in 2020, when Biden stepped off the campaign trail for a week to focus entirely on debate prep, last summer, Biden struggled to even commit to hours within the day. He didn't prep at all. And frankly, it showed.

Trump? He did. Trump spent a solid week preparing for that debate because he refused to prep four years earlier and got absolutely destroyed by Biden.

And that became the prevailing thought among Democrats: Biden's hubris was now not just sinking his chances vs Trump but also seriously jeopardizing senate seats Democrats thought they were likely to win.

There was anger in the party that Biden and his team misled officials in 2023 about the type of campaign he was going to run. They did not think he was taking any of it seriously, or that he just assumed he was going to win and didn't need to put in the effort.

It wasn't until the debate that Biden and his campaign finally went to the playbook they promised to use in 2024 to prove to everyone he was fit to run the country for four more years.

That playbook included doing interviews, something Biden had refused to do for a bulk of the campaign, as well as a press conference and campaign rallies.

But by that point, it was too late.

The damage was done.

Democrats moved because they saw the writing on the wall and it was disastrous.

They didn't have the luxury of waiting things out.

And then Trump's assassination attempt only created more contrast. Trump gets shot at, falls to the ground and instantly pops up, bloodied and yelling, "fight!" while he pumped his fists - only to then have Biden, on the heels of his debate, come down with COVID and look at death's door.

The feeling within the party was bleak. Especially after the imagery of Biden struggling to get into a SUV when he was sick just days after the Trump assassination attempt.

Biden knew at that point he could not continue.

But the truth is, he should have never run for a second term in the first place.

Had Biden announced in 2023 that he was done, he accomplished what he needed to and it was time to hand the torch to the next generation, I fully believe, even if Trump still won, Biden's legacy would be much better today.

Alas...