General Discussion

Yes, there is data supporting the claim that the termination of over 80% of USAID grants has led to significant loss of life, particularly among children. These estimates are based on models developed by public health experts and organizations.

Findings from Public Health Experts

• Brooke Nichols, a global health professor at Boston University, developed an “Impact Counter” model estimating that abrupt cuts to USAID funding have resulted in over 300,000 deaths, including more than 200,000 children. These deaths are primarily due to preventable conditions like diarrhea, pneumonia, and malnutrition following an 80% reduction in USAID’s $42 billion annual budget.

• Nichols’ model also projects that if USAID funding is not restored by the end of 2025, more than 176,000 additional adults and children could die from HIV, and at least 62,000 additional people could die from tuberculosis.

Impact of USAID Cuts

• A study led by Davide Rasella at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health warns that the dissolution of USAID could result in 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under five. These deaths are linked to diseases such as AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, diarrhea, respiratory illnesses, and malnutrition.

• In Somalia, the dismantling of USAID has led to the closure of nutrition centers, putting 55,000 children’s lives at risk. Health workers report significant increases in severely malnourished patients, with over 500 children admitted to Banadir Hospital between April and May.

Trump and Responses and Controversies

• During a congressional hearing on May 21, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed claims that people have died due to cuts to U.S. foreign aid, calling the assertion “a lie.” However, data from Boston University researcher Brooke Nichols estimated that funding cuts might have caused the deaths of up to 296,000 people, with an hourly death rate of 103 resulting from interrupted aid.
• A leaked USAID memo estimated dire consequences if aid cuts persisted, including increased malaria and tuberculosis deaths. Experts criticized the lack of planning in phasing out aid, intensifying harm.

While exact numbers are challenging to verify due to the complexity of global health data, multiple independent models and expert analyses indicate that the termination of a significant portion of USAID grants has led to substantial increases in preventable deaths, particularly among children. These findings underscore the critical role that sustained foreign aid plays in global health and humanitarian efforts.