General Discussion

US services activity flatlined in July, ISM data shows, 8/5/25

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 last month from 50.8 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would rise to 51.5. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth. ((So since the reading was 50.1, just a tiny bit above 50, the borderline between contraction and expansion, that's why the headline says it "flatlined" -Progree))

The ISM survey's new orders measure declined to 50.3 last month from 51.3 in June, with export orders falling back into contraction for the fourth time in five months.

The survey's measure of services employment fell to 46.4, the lowest level since March, from 47.2 in June. It has contracted in four of the last five months,

Price pressures, meanwhile, continue to mount. The survey's prices paid index rose to 69.9, the highest level since October 2022, from 67.5 in June ((so up 2.4 percentage points in just a month -Progree))

With tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% on imports to the U.S. set to kick in on August 7, the Budget Lab at Yale now estimates the average overall U.S. tariff rate has shot up to 18.3%, the highest since 1934, from between 2% and 3% before Trump returned to the White House in January..