General Discussion

Banks are not running out of money, not in the sense most people think of "running out of money". Overnight lending operations are normal, even if the quantity is unusual.

The capex investment in AI is a bubble, but it is not built on a false premise. AI is providing utility, which is evidenced by their popularity with people and by their successful deployment in specific areas like programming. AI is not bleeding the economy; capex is propping it up. Without data center and power supply construction, growth would be close to stagnant. AI is not going away, just like the internet did not go away after 2000, and radio/mass produced automobiles did not go away after 1929, and railroads did not go away after the panics 1873 and 1893. The AI of 2050 will be different from today's AI just like the internet of 2025 is different from the internet of 2000.

What is not normal is the shutdown and tariffs and Executive branch turmoil.

The markets are not "far more fragile". They are very over-valued. I do not expect a market crash, but I do expect a long steepish decline sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me if the SP500 breaks 7,000 before it hits 3,000. There might be a crash; nobody has a functioning crystal ball. Market timing is impossible, but one can recognize general risk and opportunity. We are in a risky phase.