General Discussion

This race IS within reach!!

Background

In the Oct primary, 45.7% of the vote went to the Democratic field. That's under a 7 point margin. (From Ballotpedia Oct 7 primary D total 31,002, R total 36,854)

An uphill battle, but in special elections it is ALL about turnout.

Democrats are fired up.

Republicans, not so much.

And Epps is a Trump-endorsed asshole.

It's only been a month since the primary, but a hell of a lot has happened to sink the felon and fire-up Democrats. Bulldozing the White House, the Trump Shutdown, Willfully starving children, MTG, Senate vote against Tariffs.

A Democratic win in this race would:


1) Teach the Republicans that gerrymandering does not always work (The republican gerrymander was struck down by a lower court. TN supreme court reversed. That map has been in effect since Jan 2023)

2) Demonstrate that, as he becomes more wildly unpopular, Trump's endorsement may do more harm than good.


In 2024, Mark Green was the incumbent, having taken office 2019. He won with 58.5 percent. Based on voting in the Oct primary, absent the incumbent advantage, things look a lot closer.

Add to that the late-breaking surge in voting/same day registrations we just saw and this could really be a competitive race.

Demographics
Median age: 35.6 (On the young side. Median age nationwide is 39)
70% White, 15% Black, 4% "Other", 2% Native American, and 8% identifying as two or more races