General Discussion

This district was a corner of Nashville, then a few modest affluent suburbs, and then just deep MAGA counties. There were not a lot of "swingable" voters in this district, and the Democratic candidate was pretty liberal in a red state, yet the Democrats still picked up 13 points in a reasonably high turnout election. This was not a fluke.

There are going to be a lot more moderate candidates running in more swingable districts in 2026. This kind of move at the Senate level in particular could change a lot, because there will always be more "swingable" voters at the state level than there will be in heavily gerrymandered House districts. There is virtually no way for Republicans to hold onto North Carolina or Maine, and Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Florida, Kansas, Texas and Mississippi are all in play. All the seats that the Democrats are defending, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, look pretty safe.

This dynamic is self-reinforcing, because Democrats can recruit better candidates if the seat looks more winnable.