General Discussion

SamuelTheThird

(1,003 posts)

27. I don't know what you're picturing,

Fri Feb 20, 2026, 02:33 PM

Feb 20

but it doesn't seem to be based on any extensive knowledge of Iran

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/the-day-after-khamenei-irans-liberation-will-begin-as-an-irgc-power-struggle

Many imagine the day after Ali Khamenei as a moment of sudden liberation: Iranians shaking off the mullahs and deciding their own destiny. The likelier opening act is far less romantic.

The immediate aftermath will probably look less like a velvet revolution and more like the opening round of an insider power struggle—staged and refereed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its allies. The institutions that have grown strongest under Khamenei are not parliaments, parties, or independent courts, but the security state and its sprawling economic empire. Those are the actors best positioned to inherit the republic he leaves behind.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

amortus716

40 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

War with Iran Soon? [View all] SamuelTheThird Feb 18 OP

Not until the Olympics are over. bluedigger Feb 18 #1

2nd carrier battle group won't be in position until Sunday, either Red Mountain Feb 18 #4

Nobel Peace Prize Prez kwolf68 Feb 18 #2

purpose of attack on Iran is to raise oil prices so trump inc can rake in more billions nt msongs Feb 18 #3

Trump wants oil prices low. Melon Feb 18 #7

Cadet Bonespurs loooooves playing GI Joe Skittles Feb 18 #5

Who supports Iran? I don't see any country of note. Melon Feb 18 #6

They don't need to take and hold the Strait SamuelTheThird Feb 19 #8

They can if they want to lose one of their last allies China EX500rider Feb 19 #10

If the regime's existence is in real jeopardy they will lash out SamuelTheThird Feb 19 #13

It's not going to happen. Melon Feb 19 #12

They can lay mines with swarms of their small boats. SamuelTheThird Feb 19 #14

Every regional government in that area has mine sweepers. Melon Feb 20 #29

Heard that one before. W_HAMILTON Feb 19 #9

Why would it be any different than the recent aerial attacks on Iran? EX500rider Feb 19 #11

Isolated aerial attacks aren't an all out war. W_HAMILTON Feb 19 #15

"Isolated aerial attacks aren't an all out war." These sound like isolated aerial attacks to you? lol EX500rider Feb 19 #16

Yes, because that's all that they were. W_HAMILTON Feb 19 #18

".....and not the type and scale of attacks you would see during an actual war," EX500rider Feb 19 #19

How is the security apparatus suppressed from the air? SamuelTheThird Feb 20 #21

Bomb all their headquarters stations and armories EX500rider Feb 20 #22

How did that work out in Iraq? SamuelTheThird Feb 20 #25

Aerial Warfare and boots on the ground are two different things EX500rider Feb 20 #26

I don't know what you're picturing, SamuelTheThird Feb 20 #27

Again, we've heard that one before too. W_HAMILTON Feb 20 #28

No matter how you spin this, this was not a good thing. FascismIsDeath Mar 1 #37

It would takes months to get the troops & supplies & landing ships in place EX500rider Mar 2 #38

And how do they deal with IRGC and Basij? pat_k Mar 2 #39

The Iranians have to hope some of the regular army units come over to their side EX500rider Mar 2 #40

We'll be greeted as liberators" maxrandb Feb 19 #17

Russia cannot fight two wars. Melon Feb 20 #30

LOL - Russia could, with their new allie Donnie Dipshit maxrandb Feb 21 #32

Huh? You are saying Trump would support Russia to fight the US?? Melon Feb 21 #33

I used to think the next conflict would be NATO joing the US to oppose Russia maxrandb Feb 21 #34

I said in my first post Melon Feb 21 #36

Seems like some here... Xolodno Feb 19 #20

Yep! Will this be 9, or 10 wars Donnie Dipshit has "solved"? maxrandb Feb 21 #35

Dip shit might be more inclined since he's likely having a tantrum over SCOTUS themaguffin Feb 20 #23

Violence is the last resort of the incompetent. Isaac Asimov Ping Tung Feb 20 #24

Looks like we foretold this one far enough in advance DFW Feb 20 #31