President Trump has signaled that the outcome he prefers in Tehran is one in which the country is led by a strongman who will cooperate with him on a peace deal and perhaps give the U.S. a slice of Iran’s oil industry. Contrary to the hopes of some inside Iran and elsewhere, he has shown little interest in promoting democracy in Iran or cultivating an exiled opposition figure, such as former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. Instead, as Trump said on Tuesday, installing a new leader “from within” the regime “might be more appropriate.” The administration’s intervention in Venezuela earlier this year produced a similar outcome: After President Nicolás Maduro’s ouster, his second in command took over and proved to be a more pliable partner. Indeed, earlier this week, Trump told The New York Times that what he accomplished in Venezuela would be the “perfect scenario” for Iran.

Israel is seeking a far more sweeping transformation. The country’s aim is not merely to remove Iran’s supreme leader but to dismantle the regime entirely. Amos Hochstein, who served as President Biden’s senior adviser for energy security and was deeply involved in Middle Eastern diplomacy, told me that if the regime survives in any form, Israeli officials fear that it will simply rebuild Iran’s missile, drone, and nuclear programs once international attention moves on.

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Hochstein, the former Biden adviser, suggested to me that Trump may opt to end the war after only a week or two by simply declaring victory—pointing to Iran’s degraded nuclear and missile capability, compromised navy and air force, and depleted civilian and military leadership. He could claim that Iran is no longer a regional menace and threaten to intervene again if the regime acts up. Israel would surely disagree with such a decision, but Trump may strong-arm the country into accepting a cease-fire, as he did last June.

The greater danger, though, is that neither side is able to control how the war ends. Israel is prepared to risk chaos as long as it means destroying the regime. Trump, meanwhile, appears to believe he can engineer an outcome from within it even though he has no evident plan. History suggests that wars aimed at reshaping political systems hardly ever unfold as their initiators intend. Once regimes crack, the forces they unleash are rarely easy to contain.