The gerrymandering may allow the Republicans to somewhat limit their losses, but it won't prevent them from losing the majority. And I suspect some of the gerrymandering will backfire on them. In order to redraw a Democratic district to a Republican majority, it requires they dilute their majority in previously safe R districts. I expect them to lose quite a few districts that pre-gerrymandering would have been easy wins.
https://www.racetothewh.com/house
2026 House Election Forecast
Every week day, the House Forecast simulates the election 10,000 times. Since it was launched in 2022, it has correctly called 97.2% of races.
Chance to Win House Majority
Democrats 81.1% Chance
Republicans 18.9% Chance
Projected Seats Won
It takes 218 seats to win the House Majority
Democrats 233.7 Seats
Republicans 201.3 Seats
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/independents-moving-strongly-against-trump-gop/
Independents Moving Strongly Against Trump, GOP
Independents tend to decide elections and PPP’s latest national poll finds Donald Trump and Republicans are in a lot of trouble with them.
Just 29% approve of the job Trump is doing to 63% who disapprove of him. Only 64% of the independents who voted for Trump are still happy with the job he’s doing and that’s brought his overall approval with people who voted for him in 2024 down to 80%. This is the weakest we’ve seen him with his base.
Trump’s fall with independent voters is having an impact on the outlook for this fall at the ballot box too. Usually independents are pretty closely divided, with just a small lean in one direction or another. Not this time- Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 51-30 with them.
Thanks to those independent voters, Democrats have a 48-41 generic ballot lead. And there are signs within the numbers that things could get worse for Republicans- among the folks who are undecided only 22% approve of the job Trump is doing to 56% who disapprove.
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