Justice & Health: Some Climate Shocks Can Increase the Likelihood of War [View all]

Researchers warn against oversimplifying climate change’s role in conflicts. But some conditions can increase the likelihood of violence, a new study finds.

By Bob Berwyn
May 11, 2026

New research reinforces scientific evidence that climate extremes can raise the risk of armed conflict, especially when drought conditions pass critical thresholds in vulnerable regions, including parts of Africa and Southeast Asia.

The study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed detailed climate and armed-conflict data from 1950 to 2023. The researchers said they found statistically significant links between conflicts and climate impacts from two well-documented natural climate cycles: El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Both are cyclical ocean temperature shifts that alter rainfall, storm and drought patterns across large parts of the planet; scientists say human-caused global warming is intensifying many of their extreme impacts. Intense climate shocks have shaped societies for millennia, but it’s been challenging to disentangle the effects of climate from factors such as demographic changes, national histories and other economic and social pressures.

The new study seeks to clarify the connections by treating climate oscillations as a natural climate experiment spanning decades of conflict data. The analysis found links between climate patterns and changing conflict risks at both global and regional scales, with three main findings related to El Niño.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11052026/climate-change-role-in-war/