General Discussion

Expectations heading into this week showed projections of about 115,000 new jobs being created in the United States in June. As it turns out, according to the new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the totals fell far short of those expectations. CNBC reported:

The U.S. economy saw job creation cool sharply heading into the summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by a seasonally adjusted 57,000 for the month, slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast.

The unemployment rate inched lower to 4.2%, which is still low by historical standards, though it’s still higher than it was when Donald Trump’s second term began.

Also discouraging were the revisions for April and May, which subtracted a combined 74,000 jobs from previous estimates.....

All told, the U.S. economy has added 668,000 jobs over Trump’s 18-month second term. Over the previous 18 months, the economy added more than 2.4 million jobs. To date, the White House hasn’t even tried to explain why the domestic job market worsened after the Republican president took office.

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To contextualize the data, I put together this chart to show month-to-month totals since the 2020 election. The blue columns point to Biden’s presidency, while the red columns point to Trump’s.