Alaska

1 - If she was willing to consider switching parties... now would be the time to do it.

2 - The theory behind this OP is that ranked-choice voting, combined with Murkowski's moderate Democratic support, would shift some votes to the imagined Democratic candidate once she's knocked out. The notion is that having two Republicans in the race would boost the Democrat once the second-ranked Republican was knocked out. That doesn't fit if she IS the Democrat in the race.