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BumRushDaShow

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3. "We are sliding into "recession" territory."

Reply to lapfog_1 (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 07:53 AM

Sep 5

Not really.

People have been predicting "a recession" for the past 3 years.

The "soft landing" is slipping away.

Since we have never done this before, this is most likely what a "soft landing" IS.

I.e., the U.S. economy is a huge juggernaut and a pile of different actions have been put in place to calm the waters of the economic lake after the huge bolder that was "the global pandemic" + "the Russian invasion of Ukraine", created a tidal wave of economic and social upheaval.

Remember that there are 3 huge financial job-stimulating funding actions that are now being implemented, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure law, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS & Science Act.

Odds are that the "sell off" that we are seeing, are people "re-balancing" their portfolios. Then you will start to see "bargain hunting" (people, and investment funds, will buy a different mix of stocks at "the right price" ), and the markets will go up again. A lot of the sell-offs and buys are automatic/programmed.

What is actually needed is for the Dow to have its 10% correction (I think the S&P already has had one).

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August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says [View all] BumRushDaShow Sep 5 OP

As always, the Fed can never gage what is happening in the economy until well AFTER it happens lapfog_1 Sep 5 #1

"We are sliding into "recession" territory." BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #3

Thanks. Agreed. And, continue to be surprised stopdiggin Sep 5 #6

It's an artifact of past practices and their unfortunate aftermath BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #7

couldn't agree more. and what concerns me further is that this stopdiggin Sep 5 #9

Needless to say I don't share your optimizing. lapfog_1 Sep 5 #18

For some bizarre reason BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #21

Fed should cut .50 not .25. Make a statement & then hold for results. oldsoftie Sep 5 #2

Remember... BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #4

This report is done based on companies that subscribe (and provide data) to ADP BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #8

I'm not aligned BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #17

The "tech sector" has always been the victim of "bubbles", particularly over the past 3 decades BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #19

Not really accurate BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #20

It undergirds the economy with its use across different sectors BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #22

I see where our misalignment is now BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #23

To reply BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #24

It's different from the 80s or even the 00s BrianTheEVGuy Sep 6 #26

Again to reply BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #28

Ugh BrianTheEVGuy Sep 6 #29

Your entire discourse in this subthread BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #30

Lower interest rates already!!! JFC! They are waiting for a recession??? LymphocyteLover Sep 5 #5

It was inevitable, I was hoping for after the election IronLionZion Sep 5 #10

So far, the ADP numbers have been miles apart from the DOL ones BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #11

142,000 from BLS this morning IronLionZion Sep 6 #25

Yup BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #27

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce progree Sep 5 #12

It's a common misunderstanding since they measure different things that sound similar IronLionZion Sep 5 #14

Nothing like squelching business with ultra high interest rates WhiteTara Sep 5 #13

"Nothing like squelching business with ultra high interest rates" BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #15

This was the Fed's plan, right? maxsolomon Sep 5 #16