Latest Breaking News

progree

(11,463 posts)

12. The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 11:05 AM

Sep 5

Last edited Thu Sep 5, 2024, 03:47 PM - Edit history (1)

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

ETA the ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report are derived from ADP payroll data representing 460,000 U.S. clients and nearly 26 million workers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html
/End Edit

(One constantly reads on DU that the ADP is better than the BLS's jobs survey because the ADP uses actual payroll data whereas the BLS's non-farm payroll survey is "just a survey". But ADP does not process all private employment payrolls, just 20%. And then somehow they extrapolate the other 80%. ).

Typically (and this was also true even when Obama was president), in months when the ADP report was significantly worse (i.e. lower job gains or greater job losses) than the BLS numbers, then there are posts about how ADP numbers are more reliable because they are "real payroll data". Whereas when the BLS numbers are worse, it's crickets -- the ADP survey goes unmentioned. And so it goes.

Edited to add Another important difference is that the ADP is private workforce payrolls, while the BLS's headline payroll jobs includes government jobs.

# Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier

The latest as of this writing (July 2024) is 158,723,000 jobs for the first and 135,384,000 private sector jobs for the second, for a difference of 23,339,000 jobs, or 14.7%. Those are government jobs.

The monthly BLS jobs report comes out tomorrow, Friday.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

30 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says [View all] BumRushDaShow Sep 5 OP

As always, the Fed can never gage what is happening in the economy until well AFTER it happens lapfog_1 Sep 5 #1

"We are sliding into "recession" territory." BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #3

Thanks. Agreed. And, continue to be surprised stopdiggin Sep 5 #6

It's an artifact of past practices and their unfortunate aftermath BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #7

couldn't agree more. and what concerns me further is that this stopdiggin Sep 5 #9

Needless to say I don't share your optimizing. lapfog_1 Sep 5 #18

For some bizarre reason BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #21

Fed should cut .50 not .25. Make a statement & then hold for results. oldsoftie Sep 5 #2

Remember... BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #4

This report is done based on companies that subscribe (and provide data) to ADP BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #8

I'm not aligned BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #17

The "tech sector" has always been the victim of "bubbles", particularly over the past 3 decades BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #19

Not really accurate BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #20

It undergirds the economy with its use across different sectors BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #22

I see where our misalignment is now BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #23

To reply BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #24

It's different from the 80s or even the 00s BrianTheEVGuy Sep 6 #26

Again to reply BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #28

Ugh BrianTheEVGuy Sep 6 #29

Your entire discourse in this subthread BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #30

Lower interest rates already!!! JFC! They are waiting for a recession??? LymphocyteLover Sep 5 #5

It was inevitable, I was hoping for after the election IronLionZion Sep 5 #10

So far, the ADP numbers have been miles apart from the DOL ones BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #11

142,000 from BLS this morning IronLionZion Sep 6 #25

Yup BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #27

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce progree Sep 5 #12

It's a common misunderstanding since they measure different things that sound similar IronLionZion Sep 5 #14

Nothing like squelching business with ultra high interest rates WhiteTara Sep 5 #13

"Nothing like squelching business with ultra high interest rates" BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #15

This was the Fed's plan, right? maxsolomon Sep 5 #16