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BumRushDaShow

(141,321 posts)
21. For some bizarre reason
Thu Sep 5, 2024, 03:56 PM
Sep 5

I have been side-following these economic things since that "crash of '87" (including reading Ravi Batra's book back then). My mom was a big fan of Louis Rukeyser's PBS shows (including "Wall Street Week" ) and I ended up watching that and just monitoring the whole thing.

I am naturally a risk-averse pessimist, which even gets reflected with my posts on DU. However I also look for "patterns" and there is something very different about what has been done over the past 3 years versus what was done in the past. And part of that is because this situation had a cause that hadn't been seen in over a century (1917 - 1918), where you had a "pandemic" (Spanish Flu back then, COVID now), a war (WWI back then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine), and environmental calamities (massive cold waves that impacted agriculture back then and the extremes of climate change now with floods, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes/destructive windstorms, etc).

This current economic environment is not a "bubble", although "bubbles" have formed within it.

It was a "perfect storm" that needed a unique way to handle it, and as I noted in another post, there are things that were done like the passage of 3, job-stimulating funding laws (Bipartisan Infrastructure law, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS & Science Act) that are helping to keep a "stimulus" to many parts of the economy, going.

We also have a law (that has been weakened over the years but it still in place) - the 2010 "Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act", done to address "The Great Recession" ), that also created an agency - CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) - that is still here too.

So there are guardrails and circuit breakers that are in place NOW that didn't exist in the past, including during those times with "bubbles". We watched a mini-meltdown happen with crypto bro Sam Bankman-Fried, that took out a couple regional banks but was halted thanks to some of regs put in place.

It's just like how it was realized during the 1987 crash, that "programmed trading" could kill your market, so things were done to halt trading if the moves were over a certain threshold.

As always, the Fed can never gage what is happening in the economy until well AFTER it happens lapfog_1 Sep 5 #1
"We are sliding into "recession" territory." BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #3
Thanks. Agreed. And, continue to be surprised stopdiggin Sep 5 #6
It's an artifact of past practices and their unfortunate aftermath BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #7
couldn't agree more. and what concerns me further is that this stopdiggin Sep 5 #9
Needless to say I don't share your optimizing. lapfog_1 Sep 5 #18
For some bizarre reason BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #21
Fed should cut .50 not .25. Make a statement & then hold for results. oldsoftie Sep 5 #2
Remember... BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #4
This report is done based on companies that subscribe (and provide data) to ADP BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #8
I'm not aligned BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #17
The "tech sector" has always been the victim of "bubbles", particularly over the past 3 decades BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #19
Not really accurate BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #20
It undergirds the economy with its use across different sectors BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #22
I see where our misalignment is now BrianTheEVGuy Sep 5 #23
To reply BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #24
It's different from the 80s or even the 00s BrianTheEVGuy Sep 6 #26
Again to reply BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #28
Ugh BrianTheEVGuy Sep 6 #29
Your entire discourse in this subthread BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #30
Lower interest rates already!!! JFC! They are waiting for a recession??? LymphocyteLover Sep 5 #5
It was inevitable, I was hoping for after the election IronLionZion Sep 5 #10
So far, the ADP numbers have been miles apart from the DOL ones BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #11
142,000 from BLS this morning IronLionZion Sep 6 #25
Yup BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #27
The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce progree Sep 5 #12
It's a common misunderstanding since they measure different things that sound similar IronLionZion Sep 5 #14
Nothing like squelching business with ultra high interest rates WhiteTara Sep 5 #13
"Nothing like squelching business with ultra high interest rates" BumRushDaShow Sep 5 #15
This was the Fed's plan, right? maxsolomon Sep 5 #16
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