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He could have conceivably won Pennsylvania because he's an old white person and so are most voters in this state. He'd have probably gotten more votes from union members and in NW Pennsylvania coal country. No matter his poll numbers, I believe committed Dems were going to go to the polls and vote for him regardless. Knew a few Dems who were freaked out after the debate, but none of them were going to stay home and not vote straight Dem. Really no different from Rs who didn't like Trump but grudgingly went out and voted for him.

I do think Fetterman is correct to note that the failed assassination attempt re-energized Trump's base and that was a bigger reason for Trump's win than Biden's debate performance.

I think strategically, Biden should have had closely guarded private discussions after he decided to run for a second term about stepping down halfway through it and letting Harris take over. Harris could've hired Biden as Sec of State and kept his expertise and counsel around, then selected someone like Buttigieg as VP to fill that vacancy. I think that would have calmed "insider" nerves and stopped the post-debate sniping.