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The only two presidents who had worse approval than Biden were Carter and H.W. Bush ... and both lost.

I fully believed Biden would win in 2022. But by the start of 2024, it became apparent he was at a significant disadvantage. He rarely led in any national polls for a solid year vs Trump and in the swing states, it was much worse. The hope was that as people accepted that Biden would be the nominee, he would open a lead against Trump. In fact, that's exactly what Biden's team expected to happen. They thought that a big reason they were polling so poorly in 2023 and early 2024 was that people just didn't believe Trump or Biden would be the nominees of their party. But that when it became clear both would be, they'd 'resign' themselves into supporting Biden.

It never happened. Biden saw zero poll movement.

In fact, I started worrying about his chances when I felt the campaign didn't capitalize on his State of the Union. That was a reset for the campaign. He delivered a very well-received speech and had all the attention of the campaign on him ... and then he went radio silent for a couple months. It created a narrative that he was being hidden or didn't have the stamina to actually run for reelection.

In all honesty, Biden and his team should have used the SOTU as a launching pad for their reelection campaign and sent him on a month-long campaign tour in the swing states hammering home his message from the SOTU.

But he didn't.

Biden was not only going to lose - he was going to lose big.