With respect to the debt ceiling - the Treasury department uses what they call "extraordinary measures" to help to tide over and that means the "actual date" can change and be pushed later in the fiscal year depending on what they do.
I expect all of these illegal layoffs and reinstatements (although a number of people will probably not return even if reinstated) along with a mass of retirements, might have some impact on that figure. Plus whatever happens to the interest rates also might impact (bonds).
It was estimated that the red siren would start flashing in June, but again, all this stuff going on at the moment might affect what happens at that point. The article I linked to above that was done in January had this estimated chart -
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