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10. The ADP numbers are "actuals" for about 20% of the private workforce. How they estimate the other 80%

Fri Apr 4, 2025, 08:59 AM

Apr 4

I have no idea.

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

the ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report are derived from ADP payroll data representing 460,000 U.S. clients and nearly 26 million workers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html
(4/4/25: the page no longer exists but trust me, or check archive.org)

Google: ADP vs. Bureau of labor statistics job numbers

Another important difference is that the ADP is private workforce payrolls, while the BLS's headline payroll jobs includes government jobs.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier

In July about 14.7% of employees were in government jobs

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The ADP report is often way different than the BLS report, even when comparing private workforce numbers. Under all kinds of administrations.

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Highlight:

U.S. payrolls rise by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2% [View all] BumRushDaShow Apr 4 OP

An independent group gab13by13 Apr 4 #1

yep. nt ImNotGod Apr 4 #4

That other group mainly polls their own subscribers BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #7

How can so many people get laid off and the numbers rise? Weird? walkingman Apr 4 #2

A lot of them may not have filed for UE yet due to court rulings BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #6

And there have been a billion court rulings over that time BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #9

UE #'s TalentAgency Apr 4 #13

Most data is by "survey" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #16

Wrong. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #18

BLS does their various "surveys" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #20

No. You are completely 100% wrong Wiz Imp Apr 4 #23

"jobs numbers are calculated by BLS employees located in DC " BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #25

OK. One last response and I'm done. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #30

"How is that ignoring it?" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #31

Are the drumpf administration numbers reliable? biophile Apr 4 #3

At this point, I'm inclined to say they are still honest Wiz Imp Apr 4 #19

Who's hiring? mdbl Apr 4 #11

From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: mahatmakanejeeves Apr 4 #14

The economy is propelled by the last of the momentum Marthe48 Apr 4 #15

I just saw in the linked article from CNBC Wiz Imp Apr 4 #21

But how many have been reinstated by the courts? BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #22