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progree

(12,038 posts)
10. The ADP numbers are "actuals" for about 20% of the private workforce. How they estimate the other 80%
Fri Apr 4, 2025, 08:59 AM
Apr 4

I have no idea.

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

the ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report are derived from ADP payroll data representing 460,000 U.S. clients and nearly 26 million workers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html
(4/4/25: the page no longer exists but trust me, or check archive.org)

Google: ADP vs. Bureau of labor statistics job numbers

Another important difference is that the ADP is private workforce payrolls, while the BLS's headline payroll jobs includes government jobs.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier

In July about 14.7% of employees were in government jobs

=============

The ADP report is often way different than the BLS report, even when comparing private workforce numbers. Under all kinds of administrations.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

An independent group gab13by13 Apr 4 #1
yep. nt ImNotGod Apr 4 #4
That other group mainly polls their own subscribers BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #7
The ADP numbers are "actuals" for about 20% of the private workforce. How they estimate the other 80% progree Apr 4 #10
How can so many people get laid off and the numbers rise? Weird? walkingman Apr 4 #2
A lot of them may not have filed for UE yet due to court rulings BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #6
And both surveys were taken in the week containing March 12, if the usual practice was followed progree Apr 4 #8
And there have been a billion court rulings over that time BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #9
UE #'s TalentAgency Apr 4 #13
Most data is by "survey" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #16
Wrong. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #18
BLS does their various "surveys" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #20
No. You are completely 100% wrong Wiz Imp Apr 4 #23
"jobs numbers are calculated by BLS employees located in DC " BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #25
I don't know why you refuse to accept it, but you still have several facts wrong. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #28
"The national job numbers are calculated by plugging the survey responses into a mathematical formula. " BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #29
OK. One last response and I'm done. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #30
"How is that ignoring it?" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #31
I'm delurking long enough to note that this week's report on unemployment claims numbers is here too. mahatmakanejeeves Apr 4 #27
Are the drumpf administration numbers reliable? biophile Apr 4 #3
to answer, no, there is no way he will allow any negative reports. nt ImNotGod Apr 4 #5
At this point, I'm inclined to say they are still honest Wiz Imp Apr 4 #19
Who's hiring? mdbl Apr 4 #11
The "health" cuts just started up towards the end of last month and into this month BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #12
From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: mahatmakanejeeves Apr 4 #14
The economy is propelled by the last of the momentum Marthe48 Apr 4 #15
The last sputtering gasps of the Biden Boom! Finished in 2 months by an orange bloated lying fraudster wolfie001 Apr 4 #17
I just saw in the linked article from CNBC Wiz Imp Apr 4 #21
But how many have been reinstated by the courts? BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #22
The best I can tell about 25,000 have been reinstated by the courts. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #24
I found the NYT is doing a running tally and apparently the "275,000" is just an "announced" number BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #26
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