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Wiz Imp

(5,172 posts)

30. OK. One last response and I'm done.

Fri Apr 4, 2025, 03:16 PM

Apr 4

You say

The CT is that people are "fudging" the calculations. But you keep on avoiding that original issue being argued, which was the CT, which I was rejecting.

My last post I said.

This survey has been done monthly for like 85 years and to this point, the published numbers have always been 100% the numbers generated from the mathematical formulas. They have NEVER been changed due to political pressure. Only a handful of people (other than the statisticians/economists responsible for generating them) see the numbers prior to publication at 8:30 AM on the "First Friday" of every month (I'm pretty sure that number is less than 10 and maybe less than 5). That includes the President who learns the numbers at the same time as everyone else - at 8:30 AM. So if that is the point you were trying to make, that is correct. However, you'd have to be a naive fool to think that this administration will definitely respect the historical norms moving forward. I still know numerous people who work on this program at BLS and they are very fearful that at some point the Trump administration will ignore the real numbers calculated from the survey and publish made up numbers more to their liking (or even worse, ask the BLS statisticians to fudge the numbers themselves). That does not appear to have happened yet, but it is a very real possibility.

How is that ignoring it? I wrote a whole paragraph on it. What part of "They have NEVER been changed due to political pressure. " do you not understand? Having worked on the program for 35 years, I made clear that I know for a fact that the published numbers have ALWAYS been legitimate. I even explained how the process works and that only a handful of people see the numbers prior to publication. I don't know how I can be any clearer than that.

However, I also pointed out that there is a real fear among people who work on the program that the longstanding honesty and integrity of the program may be destroyed given the tendencies of the Trump administration. There is no indication that has happened yet, but as I said before, you'd have to be a naive fool to think that there is no chance that this administration might try to fudge the numbers at some point. It's not guaranteed to happen, but it's a very real possibility. And as I said, I know people who work on the program who fear that it will happen. If the people who work on the program are concerned, then we all should be.

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U.S. payrolls rise by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2% [View all] BumRushDaShow Apr 4 OP

An independent group gab13by13 Apr 4 #1

yep. nt ImNotGod Apr 4 #4

That other group mainly polls their own subscribers BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #7

The ADP numbers are "actuals" for about 20% of the private workforce. How they estimate the other 80% progree Apr 4 #10

How can so many people get laid off and the numbers rise? Weird? walkingman Apr 4 #2

A lot of them may not have filed for UE yet due to court rulings BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #6

And both surveys were taken in the week containing March 12, if the usual practice was followed progree Apr 4 #8

And there have been a billion court rulings over that time BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #9

UE #'s TalentAgency Apr 4 #13

Most data is by "survey" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #16

Wrong. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #18

BLS does their various "surveys" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #20

No. You are completely 100% wrong Wiz Imp Apr 4 #23

"jobs numbers are calculated by BLS employees located in DC " BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #25

I don't know why you refuse to accept it, but you still have several facts wrong. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #28

"The national job numbers are calculated by plugging the survey responses into a mathematical formula. " BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #29

OK. One last response and I'm done. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #30

"How is that ignoring it?" BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #31

I'm delurking long enough to note that this week's report on unemployment claims numbers is here too. mahatmakanejeeves Apr 4 #27

Are the drumpf administration numbers reliable? biophile Apr 4 #3

to answer, no, there is no way he will allow any negative reports. nt ImNotGod Apr 4 #5

At this point, I'm inclined to say they are still honest Wiz Imp Apr 4 #19

Who's hiring? mdbl Apr 4 #11

The "health" cuts just started up towards the end of last month and into this month BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #12

From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: mahatmakanejeeves Apr 4 #14

The economy is propelled by the last of the momentum Marthe48 Apr 4 #15

The last sputtering gasps of the Biden Boom! Finished in 2 months by an orange bloated lying fraudster wolfie001 Apr 4 #17

I just saw in the linked article from CNBC Wiz Imp Apr 4 #21

But how many have been reinstated by the courts? BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #22

The best I can tell about 25,000 have been reinstated by the courts. Wiz Imp Apr 4 #24

I found the NYT is doing a running tally and apparently the "275,000" is just an "announced" number BumRushDaShow Apr 4 #26