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In reply to the discussion: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses [View all]progree
(12,079 posts)20. Folks, two negative quarters in a row is NOT officially a recession. The NBER is the widely accepted arbiter of when
Last edited Thu May 1, 2025, 07:39 PM - Edit history (2)
recessions occur. (The U.S. government Bureau of Economic Analysis says the NBER -- National Bureau of Economic Research -- is the official arbiter -- see below). Not Internet memes and myths, no matter how common they may be.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/what-is-a-recession-impacts-jobs-real-estate-economy/3693896/
Dr. Antonio Saravia says the “conventional definition” of a recession is when there is negative growth in the GDP in two consecutive quarters.
"conventional definition" -- a common definition would be better wording. But as the article goes on to state, it is not the official definition.
Unemployment rates and payroll data can also be used to determine the start and end dates of a recession, according to economists.
The National Bureau of Economic Research also holds that significant declines in economic activity must be evaluated on their depth, diffusion and duration.
"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough," according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee with NBER, which officially determines if a recession has occurred. https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-january-7-2008
The National Bureau of Economic Research also holds that significant declines in economic activity must be evaluated on their depth, diffusion and duration.
"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough," according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee with NBER, which officially determines if a recession has occurred. https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-january-7-2008
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html
which morphs into:
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions
Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dates?
Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?
Q: When did the NBER become the quasi-official arbiter of US business cycle dates?
Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?
Q: When did the NBER become the quasi-official arbiter of US business cycle dates?
https://www.google.com/search?q=is+the+nber+the+official+arbiter+of+when+recessions+occur
From the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession
In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold. For information on recession, or business-cycle, dating, see: http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html.
This is especially significant because the BEA is the government organization that produces the GDP numbers.
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U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses [View all]
BumRushDaShow
Apr 30
OP