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Last edited Wed Dec 24, 2025, 06:04 AM - Edit history (2)

Some notes I made from this article - a mix of excerpts and my notes, sorry

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economic-growth-accelerates-third-133710066.html

4.3% annualized rate. Economists polled by Reuters expected 3.3%

Consumer spending increased at a 3.5% rate. Much of ‌the consumer spending acceleration resulted from a rush to buy electric vehicles before the September 30 expiration of tax credits. Motor vehicle sales dropped in October ‍and November, while spending elsewhere was mixed.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated the shutdown could slice between 1.0 percentage point and 2.0 percentage points off GDP in the fourth quarter. (The shutdown began October 1 -- just after the end of the July 1 - Sept 30 period of this Q3 GDP report)

Surveys suggest consumer spending is being driven by higher-income households, thanks to a stock market boom that has inflated household wealth. In contrast, middle- and lower-income consumers are struggling ... K-shaped economy ...

That phenomenon (K-shaped economy) also is playing out among businesses. Economists said large corporations have mostly managed to withstand ⁠the blow from the import duties, which have increased ​costs, and are investing in artificial intelligence. (Investment outlays helps the GDP number). But smaller businesses ​are struggling with tariffs.

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Additional factors from other media reports:

. . . Exports rose at an annualized rate of 8.8%, boosting the GDP number.

. . . Federal spending also played a sizable role, a reflection of the large uptick in defense spending as well as buyouts for federal workers.
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Remember these are conditions in the 3 months ending September 30. So all the bad economic news we've been seeing in October, November, and most of December so far, are not a part of this. The government shutdown began October 1.

Imports hurt the GDP number. Someone mentioned upthread that a reduction of imports helps the GDP number, which may be one of the reasons Q3 GDP is high. I didn't see the imports factor mentioned at all in the Reuters story

Normally there are 3 estimates for each GDP report. For Q3 these estimates are normally: end of October, end of November, end of December

I don't know whether today's report is just the first of three estimates with two more to come, or what. It's "early" for the final estimate so might be one more coming (or maybe two). My thinking wondering if we will see two more estimates is that by now, they must have the information that would normally be in the second estimate, maybe even the third. Of course I'm well aware of the shutdown delays.

Most of the information for GDP estimates comes from businesses, and they didn't shut down.

A similar situation: for the famous headline "First Friday" payroll jobs numbers, there are 3 estimates, each a month apart. From what I've read, the need for 3 estimates is due to delayed reporting from surveyed businesses, not because it fundamentally takes BLS staffers 3 months to do the work.

Edited to add - There will be one more update for sure, and that's it. This is from BEA.gov which produces the GDP reports:

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits

BEA's schedule of news releases show no further 3rd quarter GDP reports other than the January 22 one.
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

Yet another ETA - I revised the above ETA with info from BEA's schedule of news releases. I also added "Additional factors from other media reports" about a substantial rise in exports and federal spending