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America’s Cannabis Market Is Breaking Down. A Select Few Are Breaking Out

By Javier Hasse, Senior Contributor. Javier Hasse is a cannabis and psychedelics reporter and book author.

Oct 07, 2025, 01:54pm EDT Oct 07, 2025, 05:06pm EDT


The cannabis sector has endured a dramatic correction. After peaking at a combined valuation of roughly $37 billion in 2021, leading publicly traded cannabis companies (Curaleaf, Green Thumb, Tilray and Trulieve) are now worth less than $11 billion (as of October 7, 2025).

Oversupply, plunging wholesale prices (average U.S. retail cannabis prices have fallen 32% since 2021), heavy debt burdens, stalled federal reforms and punitive tax treatment under IRS code 280E have left many operators cash-strapped. In parallel, more than $3.8 billion in delinquent payments are weighing on the ecosystem, with invoices averaging about 1.6 months (~6–7 weeks) past due.

Complicating matters further, hemp regulations remain unsettled. More than 30 states have banned or restricted intoxicating hemp-derived cannabinoids like delta-8 THC and Congress is considering closing the “hemp loophole” in the 2025 Farm Bill. These pressures have eroded margins and investor confidence across the industry. Yet, it is not all contraction. Select operators, both private and public, continue to expand nationally by focusing on capital discipline, measured growth and diversified strategies.

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