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progree

(12,811 posts)
4. Actually nonfarm payroll employment FELL by 192,000, but were seasonally adjusted upwards to +50,000
Fri Jan 9, 2026, 08:46 AM
Jan 9

Last edited Fri Jan 9, 2026, 10:06 AM - Edit history (2)

Not Seasonally Adjusted: -192,000 in December
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Seasonally Adjusted: +50,000 in December
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

The seasonal adjustment in December is always in a big upward direction (in contrast to the ones in August, September, October, and November, which are historically downward revisions)

December is a very poor month for actual (meaning not seasonally adjusted) net job gains , most are negative.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
In the last 10 years: in thousands of jobs (i use double minus to make the negative ones stand out more) :
--213, --249, --201, --248, --513, +197, --309, --122, +41, --192

(January is a helluva lot worse: --2972, --2878, --3096, -2952, and so on)
====================================================

Back to seasonally adjusted numbers -- The previous 2 months were revised down by 76,000 combined.
So we have 26,000 fewer nonfarm payroll jobs than in the report that came out December 16. ( 50k - 76k = -26k )

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from
-105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to
+56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower
than previously reported.


Double check, from Table B-1, total nonfarm payroll jobs:

December 16 report, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12162025.htm
159,552,000 jobs in November

Today's January 9, 2026 report, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092026.htm
159,526,000 in December

159,526,000 - 159,552,000 = -26,000

This is nicht gut, Mein Fuhrer!

Recommendations

5 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

The jackass has created a no fire no hire economy in the private sector. lostincalifornia Jan 9 #1
4.4% unemployment while the U.S. economy is losing jobs? NoMoreRepugs Jan 9 #2
I know progree will be around shortly but I think one factor is the "Labor Participation Rate" BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #3
#29 a little ways below /nt progree Jan 9 #30
... BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #31
could be an effect of mass deportations DBoon Jan 9 #15
Yes. The St. Louis Fed estimates only a net 57k jobs/month (+/- 25k) need to be created, down from the old 150k number progree Jan 9 #29
Actually nonfarm payroll employment FELL by 192,000, but were seasonally adjusted upwards to +50,000 progree Jan 9 #4
Mostly temp jobs, am I right? FakeNoose Jan 9 #5
Not necessarily. UPS, FedEx & Amazon increases are accounted for by the Seasonal Adjustment. Wiz Imp Jan 9 #7
I'm guessing all the hirng.... SergeStorms Jan 9 #26
Looking at the graph Johnny2X2X Jan 9 #6
The October massive drop (fed "Fork in the Road" disaster) BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #8
Under Biden Johnny2X2X Jan 9 #9
This tells it all BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #12
"this tells it all" - yes it does. I like that it's percent change, and that it is annualized progree Jan 9 #20
Brilliant! Thanks wolfie001 Jan 9 #21
striking Skittles Jan 9 #27
Yes. April level 159433. December 159526 Wiz Imp Jan 9 #10
11,625 jobs a month! Johnny2X2X Jan 9 #16
Yeah, no. I'm not buying it. Texin Jan 9 #11
Aaron Rupar's video clips of administration talking heads trying to change the subject: mahatmakanejeeves Jan 9 #13
This one? BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #18
That smarmy imp puts the ass in Hassett peppertree Jan 9 #22
Data is from the BLS - already gutted of intelligent people by pres dump. mdbl Jan 9 #14
That - or he has his "supervisors" keep an eye on them numbers peppertree Jan 9 #23
Links to data series progree Jan 9 #17
Both payroll employment (+50,000) and unemployment rate (4.4%) change little in December mahatmakanejeeves Jan 9 #19
and in a couple of months, it will be revised down further as seems to be the case. nt Javaman Jan 9 #24
They already had some revisions downward of previous data! BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #25
Compare to Wednesday's ADP report of PRIVATE payrolls: ADP: +41k, BLS: +37k progree Jan 9 #28
Benchmark jobs data will be released with the next monthly release at the beginning of February. Wiz Imp Jan 9 #32
🚨 President Literal Asswipe posted job numbers from the report the evening before 😬! progree Jan 9 #33
"if you REALLY want to be first with the jobs report, check Truth Social the night before" BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #34
Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»U.S. payrolls rose 50,000...»Reply #4