Latest Breaking News

progree

(12,791 posts)

29. Yes. The St. Louis Fed estimates only a net 57k jobs/month (+/- 25k) need to be created, down from the old 150k number

Reply to DBoon (Reply #15)

Fri Jan 9, 2026, 05:37 PM

Jan 9

Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 8/28/25
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/lower-immigration-projections-mean-lower-breakeven-employment-growth

In April this year, St. Louis Fed economist Victoria Gregory and I provided an estimate for breakeven employment growth—the number of jobs the economy needs to add each month to keep the unemployment rate steady. Using Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections from January, we estimated that the U.S. economy needed to add more than 150,000 jobs per month to maintain a stable unemployment rate.1

Since then, new immigration projections have dramatically changed the picture. The bottom line: With much lower expected immigration for 2025, I now estimate breakeven employment growth has fallen to a range between 32,000 and 82,000 jobs per month. ((that's 57k +/- 25k -progree))

As for today's report of 50k net new payroll jobs, while unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage points, 3 reasons:

1./ The above

2./ The 2 numbers come from different surveys -- the 50k number comes from the Establishment Survey, while the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate come from the Household Survey. The payroll jobs number sampling error: +/- 136,000 at 90% confidence interval And the unemployed numbers are +/- 300,000 (and +/- 0.2% for the unemployment rate).
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
Note, this is just the sampling error. There are other errors besides sampling error.

Correspondingly, again based on sampling error alone, there is a 50% chance that it is within +/- 55,800, and a 50% chance that it is outside that. So, for example for a reported job gain of 100,000, there is a 50% chance that it is between 44,200 and 155,800, and a 50% chance that it is outside that range based on sampling error alone. Note there are errors other than sampling error that add to the uncertainty

3./ As BRDS said, the labor force participation rate is a big factor in changing the unemployment rate. The labor force fell by 46k in December.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

BumRushDaShow

34 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

U.S. payrolls rose 50,000 in December, less than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.4% [View all] BumRushDaShow Jan 9 OP

The jackass has created a no fire no hire economy in the private sector. lostincalifornia Jan 9 #1

4.4% unemployment while the U.S. economy is losing jobs? NoMoreRepugs Jan 9 #2

I know progree will be around shortly but I think one factor is the "Labor Participation Rate" BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #3

#29 a little ways below /nt progree Jan 9 #30

... BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #31

could be an effect of mass deportations DBoon Jan 9 #15

Yes. The St. Louis Fed estimates only a net 57k jobs/month (+/- 25k) need to be created, down from the old 150k number progree Jan 9 #29

Actually nonfarm payroll employment FELL by 192,000, but were seasonally adjusted upwards to +50,000 progree Jan 9 #4

Mostly temp jobs, am I right? FakeNoose Jan 9 #5

Not necessarily. UPS, FedEx & Amazon increases are accounted for by the Seasonal Adjustment. Wiz Imp Jan 9 #7

I'm guessing all the hirng.... SergeStorms Jan 9 #26

Looking at the graph Johnny2X2X Jan 9 #6

The October massive drop (fed "Fork in the Road" disaster) BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #8

Under Biden Johnny2X2X Jan 9 #9

This tells it all BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #12

"this tells it all" - yes it does. I like that it's percent change, and that it is annualized progree Jan 9 #20

Brilliant! Thanks wolfie001 Jan 9 #21

striking Skittles Jan 9 #27

Yes. April level 159433. December 159526 Wiz Imp Jan 9 #10

11,625 jobs a month! Johnny2X2X Jan 9 #16

Yeah, no. I'm not buying it. Texin Jan 9 #11

Aaron Rupar's video clips of administration talking heads trying to change the subject: mahatmakanejeeves Jan 9 #13

This one? BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #18

That smarmy imp puts the ass in Hassett peppertree Jan 9 #22

Data is from the BLS - already gutted of intelligent people by pres dump. mdbl Jan 9 #14

That - or he has his "supervisors" keep an eye on them numbers peppertree Jan 9 #23

Links to data series progree Jan 9 #17

Both payroll employment (+50,000) and unemployment rate (4.4%) change little in December mahatmakanejeeves Jan 9 #19

and in a couple of months, it will be revised down further as seems to be the case. nt Javaman Jan 9 #24

They already had some revisions downward of previous data! BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #25

Compare to Wednesday's ADP report of PRIVATE payrolls: ADP: +41k, BLS: +37k progree Jan 9 #28

Benchmark jobs data will be released with the next monthly release at the beginning of February. Wiz Imp Jan 9 #32

🚨 President Literal Asswipe posted job numbers from the report the evening before 😬! progree Jan 9 #33

"if you REALLY want to be first with the jobs report, check Truth Social the night before" BumRushDaShow Jan 9 #34