and rising. As expected.
I'll add more info later after I read the news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
As always, I prefer to show everything annualized so as to compare to the Fed's 2% goal and to each other
The 12 month graphs in the OP look nice and tame and even trending down slightly. But they both benefit by hot January 2025 to February 2025 numbers dropping out of the 12-month window: regular CPI: 2.73% annualized, and core CPI: 3.10% annualized. For the trend, what drops out of the 12 month window is every bit as important as what enters the 12-month window
Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
3.3% 3.0% 2.4% Regular CPI (includes food & energy)
2.6% 3.0% 2.5% Core CPI (does not have food or energy)
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target
As for the trend,
For the regular CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 2.2% in November but is now at 3.0%
For the core CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 1.6% in November but is now at 3.0%
All of this is before any Iran effects of course.
And in March, the 12-month average is not helped at all by what drops out of the 12-month window: just a very small 0.40% annualized for the regular CPI, and an also very small 0.83% annualized for the core CPI.
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