Harris' momentum has stalled -- but not reversed. Here's 5 takeaways from the latest polls. [View all]

(Politico) The stakes for Tuesday’s debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are enormous.

Nearly a month ago, POLITICO identified five key indicators of the election’s trajectory beyond the Harris-Trump horserace. Revisiting those — with fresh polling in mind — suggests Harris’ momentum has been arrested, but not reversed: She’s still gaining in popularity, and Democratic voters remain far more energized than when President Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket.

And still, the race remains exceedingly — and stubbornly — close. Though Trump had a 2-point lead in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College released on Sunday, Harris maintains a national lead of between 1 and 3 percentage points on average. Given Republicans’ current advantage in the Electoral College, Harris’ current national lead is slightly closer to Hillary Clinton’s insufficient, 2-point popular-vote victory in 2016 than Biden’s 4-point win in 2020.

Moreover, the race is also extremely competitive in the battleground states. In three major polling averages — RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which each use different methodologies — each of the seven states both campaigns are contesting are within 3 points in either direction. Harris’ largest lead is in Wisconsin (2.7 points in the FiveThirtyEight average), while Trump’s biggest advantage is in Arizona (2.1 points in the Silver Bulletin average).

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