Jon Ralston's Early Voting Update 10/25/24 [View all]

So the Republicans lead by more than 22,000 ballots, or 5 percent, almost solely because of 25,000-ballot rural firewall for the GOP. (Fun fact is that almost 21,000 of that GOP advantage in rural Nevada comes from just six of the 15 counties: Lyon, Douglas, Elko, Nye, Carson and Churchill.

The usually redoubtable Clark Democratic firewall is only at 5,500 voters as the GOP has a more than 5 percent turnout advantage where the most votes are. That is affecting every partisan race on the ballot here. (More on that coming.) Clark's turnout also is well below its registration share, and if that lasts, the GOP will do very well. It seems unlikely to, though, unless a whole bunch of mail carriers are kidnapped in Las Vegas.

It’s almost certain this disparity between the urban (Washoe is close, with GOP up by 3,000 votes, but there essentially is no urban firewall)) and rural firewalls can’t last much longer. (If it does hold, there will be a deep red wave here, but I don’t know anyone who understands this stuff who believes that will happen. The data will tell.)

What we are seeing is just an unusual and unprecedented (for a presidential year) pattern of how the votes are coming in: The GOP advantage will come early, where the Dem advantage used to, and the Dem advantage (thanks to urban mail) will come later. No one really disputes this. Why? Because we know Republicans have been encouraged to vote earlier and we know that turnout will be upwards of 75 percent for each party because it’s a presidential year.

I assume, until the data and common sense tell me differently, that the turnout mix is going to be at or around what it as in 2020 and 2016, where the Rs had about a 5 percent overall advantage. The huge difference is that the Dem registration edge usually gave them a cushion. This cycle, because the gap has closed, they have almost no margin for error and thus the indie split becomes critical. Let me show you.



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024