PA post-election thoughts [View all]

It looks like it was a good night for PA Dems. Shapiro and Fetterman both won and their margins of victory should rise as all the mailed ballots are counted.

In my CD, Dem Chris Deluzio defeated Jeremy Schaffer who has conceded. This keeps PA-17 in Dem hands after Dem Conor Lamb decided to run for Senate then lost to Fetterman in the Dem primary. Rs probably saw this seat as their best chance for a pick up given the increasingly R swing in western PA. I think the congressional split will be 9D-8R since PA lost a seat.

There was a fair amount of ticket splitting with Rs likely voting for Shapiro Gov and Oz senate.

The mailed in ballots seem to be skewed heavily toward Dems. In Beaver County, the elections division has not yet posted the mailed ballot results. Oz will still win here, but the margin will be 5-7k votes closer. Shapiro is trailing Mastriano, but there are enough outstanding mailed ballots that he could eke out a win.

It's possible with the 2020 legislative redistricting that Dems could win the state house. At the very least they'll cut into the Rs 20 seat advantage that was achieved via major partisan gerry-mandering and undone to a decent degree by the 2020 legislative redistricting commission. I haven't looked at the state senate, but since the districts changed little in redistricting, it will probably remain a 28-22 or so R advantage. If the state legislature is split or even if the Rs keep both chambers but their advantage is reduced, we probably won't see their crazier ideas get as much traction.

Election day R turnout did not match 2020. In my precinct, it was lower 50s%. Overall turnout will be higher once the mailed ballots are counted, but it seems like just the usual suspects showed up to the polls, not them + the not-the-usual-suspects. I think it does give more credibility to the thesis that Trump himself on the ballot is what pulls out the unlikely type voters.

After all the votes are counted, I'd like to see SecDef Austin recall both Mastriano and Perry to service and courtmartial them under whatever the UCMJ equivalent of seditious conspiracy is. There's no doubt these two conspired to overthrow the elected government of the US.