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A tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico early next week [View all]
It is the time of year that no one living on the Gulf Coast can take anything developing in the Gulf for granted. I love Space City Weather and here is the latest
Link to tweet
https://spacecityweather.com/a-tropical-system-is-likely-to-develop-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-early-next-week-heres-what-to-look-out-for/
Obviously, this gives us a forecast challenge, but I think we’re in two very distinct camps right now.
I am not a betting man, but I would probably say the odds right now are 70/30 in favor of camp 2, but that 30 percent is a weighty one given that the system could be a hurricane in that scenario. Normally, I’d discount the ICON model, but given its performance this season and the consistency it has had with track and intensity here, I think there’s merit to considering it with this particular system.
Camp 1: A strong tropical storm or hurricane that tracks off the Texas coast toward Louisiana arriving Wednesday-ish.
Camp 2: A depression or loosely organized tropical storm with a lot of rain that impacts Texas, especially at the coast Tuesday through Thursday, coming ashore between Galveston and Cameron, LA.
I am not a betting man, but I would probably say the odds right now are 70/30 in favor of camp 2, but that 30 percent is a weighty one given that the system could be a hurricane in that scenario. Normally, I’d discount the ICON model, but given its performance this season and the consistency it has had with track and intensity here, I think there’s merit to considering it with this particular system.
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