A return to two-party politics? Dont believe it [View all]
This unexpected outcome of the General Election has led some commentators to claim breezily that the United Kingdom has returned to two-party politics. But it masks some big shifts. While it is true that it has been several decades since the two major parties achieved a combined vote share of over 80% as they did on Thursday, it is far from clear that this is the new normal of British politics.
This time, voters learnt from the 2015 result they decided to try and game the system. In 2015, 9% of voters said theyd be voting tactically. This time, the figure was double that 20%, according to BMG polling for the Electoral Reform Society. A common result of this second guessing with one in five voters holding their nose at the ballot box is that the contest becomes reduced to a decision as to which of the major parties is likely to defeat the other major party. This in turn supports and increases the dominance of the two biggest political parties, polarising around one or two divides.
What lies behind all this is our antiquated voting system literally designed for two parties. Yet even as more voters coalesced around the Conservatives and Labour than they have for years, still neither of them could win the election and form a majority government.
The fact that the two of them were taking their largest vote share in many years and we have still ended up with a hung parliament is not evidence of going back to two party politics, but of how the system is fundamentally bust when you have 21st century voting patterns and a broken 19th century voting system.
http://www.democraticaudit.com/2017/06/13/a-return-to-two-party-politics-dont-believe-it/
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Not much more to this article at the link, but this chimes with what I've been saying about Scotland's "one-party state" in the current political climate - tactical voting is key, parties assume that voters are "theirs" at their peril, and if we have another election this year, the results may be even harder to call.