Democrats could regain control of the US Senate in 2026 if they lose it in 2024. [View all]

In 2024- Biden wins re-election by carrying PA,MI,and WI plus the other states Trump lost in 2016. Democrats will lose US Senate seats in WV and MT. Both are states that Biden will lose by a double digit margin. 51R 49D. Gallego-AZ,Slotkin-MI,Rosen-NV,Brown-OH,Casey-PA,and Baldwin-WI will win.
In 2026- The only vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2026 is GA(Ossoff-D)that is if Kemp-R is the Republican nominee. Ossoff-D defeats Kemp-R in the regular election or runoff election. Democrats have an opportunity to defeat Tillis(R-NC) with Jeff Jackson or Wiley Nickel. Peters-MI,Smith-MN,and Lujan-NM will win. The 2nd opportunity for Democrats is ME if Collins-R retires and Golden-D runs. 50D-50R with VP Harris breaks the tie vote.
In 2028 Democrats guide to 51 seats is winning AZ(Kelly-D),GA(Warnock-D),NV(Cortez Masto-D),PA(Fetterman-D) and WI(Pocan,Rodriguez,Godlewski,or Kaul-D). Democrats could win NC with Jackson-D or Nickel-D.

Democrats will have 51 to 54 US Senate seats after the 2028 elections.