John Kerry

What I mean is that it is clear that Obama's numbers were going up on Sunday and Monday. This poll is largely done from Thursday to Saturday, (10 % of interviews on Sunday).

As for being kind to Obama, this is a bad interpretation (just as bad as saying this last poll is kind to Romney). I wish TV people got trained on polls. The Pew Poll does not weight on party affiliation. It is not necessarily a bad thing in itself, but it means it amplifies mood swings that do exist. Before the debate, Republicans were depressed and did not answer polls. In these last series of polls post debate, Democrats are depressed and do not answer polls. (Same thing for PPP who is a Democratic pollster. The difference is that PPP says so clearly, while Pew just dumps raw results with very little analysis about what it means).

I am not for "unskewing" polls. I find this ridiculous. But people have to be aware of what polls measure: a mood swing. And, in a race that is really tight (and has always been) these mood swings tend to look terrible for one side or the other.

Now, I do not say that Romney did not get a bump. He did. But these poll numbers have limited use and Democrats (and Andrew Sullivan) need to calm down and stop hyperventilating.

Here is what Scott Rasmussen ( of all people) had to say in its daily tracking comment. So, we have to stop the pity party and start working. Turnout will be key.

We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest. Still, in a close race, a modest change can have a major impact. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other. See daily tracking history.