John Kerry

Face it: Brown is well liked in Mass. Such wonky stuff won't change people's opinions. He's kind of like Bill Weld except he's the incumbent, making it even harder to unseat him.

I'm puzzled by the Warren numbers because I find her to be a very likable figure. It seems that the Right has been successful in tying her with the Occupy crowd, for which based on FB posts from Mass. friends of mine is very unpopular. You know, just because we like someone who appears on TV and how they performed a job for a White House, it doesn't mean they are going to be a good candidate running for political office. Kerry was able to successfully "humanize" himself in a pinch (plus the excellent attack ads linking Weld with Gingrich), but I think this speaks to his political talents which contrary to the CW Kerry has that most don't.

Roger Lau did a great job for Kerry in '08, but that was a pretty easy one. This one is going to be a tough slog, and frankly, since super PACs are the reality, I think it foolish to eliminate possible weapons in a protracted battle. If I had to place my bet now, it doesn't look good for Warren. It's early days, though, so maybe something will change.