Economy

Fortune's predictions for 2016 in business, politics, markets and more - Fortune

Fortune’s predictions about the events, people and ideas that will matter in 2016, in business, politics, technology and more.

Presidential election years bring out the Nostradamus in all of us. But beyond the White House horse race, there will be plenty of other big changes to anticipate in 2016 in business, culture, and the economy. To predict just what they’ll be, the staff of Fortune has parsed the data and polled the experts; here, with humility, we’ve assembled our own educated guesses about the year ahead.

Our forecast: Look for Apple AAPL 3.32% and Serena Williams to keep soaring while Pfizer PFE 1.02% and GE GE 1.53% get smaller. As tech euphoria collides with reality, expect some unicorns to lose their horns while others disappear. Cyberespionage will rise sharply; interest rates will not. There will be big breakthroughs in how you get around, including an affordable “hoverboard.” And most important, there will be modest but real GDP growth —between 2.6% and 2.8% in the U.S., higher in emerging economies—as a resilient world defies fears of a China-driven crash.

And predictions in these areas:

• Corporate America: Boards, mergers and breakups

Here’s How Many Fortune 500 Board Seats Women Will Hold

Activist Investors Will Get Less Active

Hudson’s Bay Will Buy Macy’s

A New-Media Juggernaut Will Buy An Old Media Brand

Hostile Takeover Battles Will Surge

Healthcare’s M&A Flood Will Ebb

Pfizer Will Break Up

• Silicon Valley and Tech Companies

Apple Will Buy Tesla…

…While Becoming the First $800 Billion Company

Unicorn Investing Will Get Ugly

Why Jack Dorsey Will Leave Square (But Stay at Twitter)

The Cybersecurity Startup Boom Will End

An Entrenched Computer Security Company Will Get Hacked

The Food-Delivery Bubble Will Pop

• Politics

Campaign Ad Spending Will Have Another Boom Year

This GOP Ticket…

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, an unrivaled communicator within his party who deftly straddles its warring wings, will emerge from the GOP presidential scrum as the nominee. Doubling down on the “youthful D.C. outsider” contrast he intends to press against Clinton, Rubio will tap South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, 43, as his running mate. The fellow second-generation American from the Sun Belt, now in her second term, maintains solid approval numbers at home. More importantly, her handling of the state’s Confederate flag controversy expanded her support among constituencies — including African-Americans and self-identified Democrats — who’ll be key to any Republican victory. —Tory Newmyer

…Will Take On These Democrats

Hillary Clinton will enjoy a near-unimpeded march to her party’s nomination. But the primaries will reveal her troubling weakness among white working-class men. She’ll try to address it by rounding out her ticket with Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, a Harvard-educated former civil rights lawyer who’s nonetheless got lunchbucket cred as the successful former governor of a Southern state. Bonus: He speaks fluent Spanish. —Newmyer

My note: Anybody see a problem with both of these tickets? The GOP, from Florida and South Carolina, and the Dems, from New York (or Arkansas) and Virginia. So... Whatever happened to regional balance? Is that still a thing? Or is that so 20th century?

The Democrats Will (Narrowly) Retake the Senate

Another 6 States Will Go Green (With Legal Pot)

Obama Will Take a Parting Shot at Big Donors

• Science Breakthroughs

Warm-Weather Athletes Will Get Self-Cooling Clothes

The Private Sector Will Engineer a Fusion Breakthrough

A New Drug Will Show Promise in the Alzheimer’s Fight

• Consumer Trends

‘Hoverboards’ Will Wobble Into the Mainstream

Robots Will Do More of Your Driving

Cyberspies Will Attack Your Inbox

Full-Fat Will Be the New Fat-Free

These Popular Foods Will Get More Expensive

• Markets and the Global Economy

Consumers (and Rate Cuts) Keep China Growing

Here’s How Much Interest Rates Will Rise in 2016

Here’s Where the S&P 500 Will Be at the End of 2016

What Oil Will Cost at the End of 2016

• Sports

Serena Williams Will Cash In With Endorsement Deals

Pro Football Gets Bigger — in the U.S. and China

The NHL Will Expand—to Another Snow-Free City

Under Armour Will Sign a Big Deal With Ronda Rousey

What Fortune Got Right and Wrong in 2015

On the money: We correctly forecast that China’s growth would slow to 7%. We also called the ongoing boom in China’s domestic smartphone industry. We predicted that U.S. wage growth would improve. And we foresaw that the extra income would fuel faster spending on home improvements.

Partial credit: We said Congress would break its gridlock to advance Pacific trade talks; they did, though a final deal still isn’t assured.

Where we whiffed: We said Amazon would follow the disappointing Fire Phone with a new, better phone; that hasn’t happened yet. We predicted falling prices would make solar energy cheaper than fossil fuel in most states; that was overly exuberant. And we forecast a “booming” rebound for oil. (We’re still waiting.)

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