Economy

Proserpina

(2,352 posts)

51. Don't bet on it: These 2015 predictions were way off base

Sun Dec 6, 2015, 10:59 AM

Dec 2015

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/06/predictions-for-2015-that-were-way-off-base.html

It's that time of year again, when everyone starts pushing out their predictions for next year. (And yes, that includes this organization.) Some 2016 predictions are already out, such as those at Fortune and Macworld.

But let's face it: Most of those predictions end up being wrong. We can be safe in taking them with a (giant) grain of salt — or perhaps discounting them altogether.

For reference, here's a sampling of predictions put out last December, trying to forecast what would happen this year.

Fortune said the S&P 500 would close the year at 2312, but we can safely say that's not going to happen (The index closed Friday just below 2100). It also predicted "mom jeans get hot" (needless to say they didn't) and "football helmets get a lot more futuristic."

Then there are vague predictions, that you can't exactly measure or give a precise result for. The Atlantic offered "4 expert predictions for the global economy in 2015", yet each prediction was a story at least five paragraphs long. One of the predictions said the US faces a debt "reckoning" —but that didn't really happen, did it?

well, not yet... more

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

63 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

WEE December 4, 2015 I'll start......I'll start with some...... [View all] Hotler Dec 2015 OP

Madoff victims get holiday treat with $1.1 million checks Hotler Dec 2015 #1

More music......Some blues featuring Steve Earle Hotler Dec 2015 #2

Ask me what I am drinking. What are you drinking Hotler? Hotler Dec 2015 #3

Well, I first saw this post after some vodka... MattSh Dec 2015 #47

Good combination! hamerfan Dec 2015 #4

Demeter's status is sadly unchanged... MattSh Dec 2015 #6

or PPRd without being PPRd...check this out magical thyme Dec 2015 #13

I can't believe she got a time out for posting a legitimate article from a legitimate source. mother earth Dec 2015 #19

What? What? Someone clue me in? bread_and_roses Dec 2015 #43

Happened last weekend... MattSh Dec 2015 #45

Thanks, MattSh (n/t) bread_and_roses Dec 2015 #46

Here's a link to the Hall of Infamy post... MattSh Dec 2015 #48

"Combo ski trip/mass murder" Thats funny, cracks me up .... Hotler Dec 2015 #60

Shows you have a sense of the ridiculous Proserpina Dec 2015 #63

Great song, real heart breaker n/t Hotler Dec 2015 #15

Well... MattSh Dec 2015 #5

Unlike mainstream prognosticators, who seem to always find a silver lining. Or 100... MattSh Dec 2015 #7

As long as the printing presses keep going, hamerfan Dec 2015 #10

Yeah... but... MattSh Dec 2015 #12

A currency fails when the banks stop using it Proserpina Dec 2015 #32

What Forbes is predicting... MattSh Dec 2015 #8

Don't bet on it: These 2015 predictions were way off base Proserpina Dec 2015 #51

US economy recession odds '65 percent': Investor Proserpina Dec 2015 #52

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US MattSh Dec 2015 #9

A must read. I agree that when.... Hotler Dec 2015 #17

TY, hotler, for being another really good reason to love this group. :) mother earth Dec 2015 #25

I agree.. haikugal Dec 2015 #58

The Countries With The Highest Levels Of Poverty For Retirees [Infographic] - Forbes MattSh Dec 2015 #11

Musical Interlude - In the Year 2525 MattSh Dec 2015 #14

God, that's a depressing song Proserpina Dec 2015 #33

Here's why Wall Street is worried about 2016 Hotler Dec 2015 #16

Hotler! We need your quote! hamerfan Dec 2015 #18

This one? Hotler Dec 2015 #20

Bingo! hamerfan Dec 2015 #23

A quote I did not write. Posted just for fun. Hotler Dec 2015 #22

I have no hope. I see no future. Fuddnik Dec 2015 #24

Sometimes societies just go crazy. MattSh Dec 2015 #21

I gained a lot more respect for the Soviet Union when... MattSh Dec 2015 #26

Musical Interlude hamerfan Dec 2015 #27

Queen: "Is This the World We Created?" antigop Dec 2015 #28

That song makes me sad. The question it asks is valid today... Hotler Dec 2015 #61

"Is peace, love, kindness, understanding too much to ask for from a society." antigop Dec 2015 #62

Pot breathalyzer may be coming soon to police near you Hotler Dec 2015 #29

Are you in love? Remember being in love? Hotler Dec 2015 #30

I know you loved him. A long time ago..... Hotler Dec 2015 #31

STOCKS GO NUTS AFTER THE JOBS REPORT: Here's what you need to know Proserpina Dec 2015 #34

US fund manager accused of faking own death is convicted of fraud Proserpina Dec 2015 #35

Inequality isn't just unfair — it's making people sick Proserpina Dec 2015 #36

Commodity prices and exchange rates Proserpina Dec 2015 #37

The Federal Reserve Board's 8 Percent Hike in the Social Security Tax / Dean Baker Proserpina Dec 2015 #38

Most of What You Learned in Econ 101 Is Wrong Proserpina Dec 2015 #39

Not so smart: Why two big banks failed Proserpina Dec 2015 #40

I don't know about predictions, but here's some analysis Proserpina Dec 2015 #41

And that's what Mom had selected for today... Proserpina Dec 2015 #42

Musical Interlude II hamerfan Dec 2015 #44

Maybe if by Tuesday morning... MattSh Dec 2015 #49

Tumblr the new tool for teenage thieves — RT News MattSh Dec 2015 #50

Baby Boomers' Social Security Woes Summed Up in 1 Chart Proserpina Dec 2015 #53

Americans over 30 are more miserable than they’ve ever been Proserpina Dec 2015 #54

Also, see post 11. MattSh Dec 2015 #55

And more... MattSh Dec 2015 #56

Musical Interlude - 21st Century Digital Boy MattSh Dec 2015 #57

Koch-funded center approved at Western Carolina University antigop Dec 2015 #59