Economy

Last edited Sun Feb 12, 2023, 04:06 PM - Edit history (2)

(assuming it does come out at +0.4% for January)

CPI report for January due Tuesday Feb 14, 8:30 am ET

Dec.   Expected for January
-----   ---------------------
-0.1%   +0.4%     Consumer price index
+0.3%   +0.3%     Core CPI

(edit: oops, see below: the BLS revised the December CPI from -0.1% to +0.1%, sigh, and the Core CPI was revised up in Dec from +0.3% to +0.4%)

THIS GRAPH FROM BEFORE THE REVISIONS:


CPI - just looked now, 2/12/23: 12 months of 2022:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1

Core CPI - just looked now, 2/12/23: 12 months of 2022:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4

Edited to add: Even so, if the predictions come out to be true (cpi:+0.4% and core cpi:+0.3% in January), the year over year figures will drop, because last January's numbers (Jan 2022) were +0.6% for both. The year over year is essentially a moving average of the last 12 months, and as far as changes in the year-over-year, what drops off the back end of the series (January 2022) is just as important as what gets added to the series (January 2023). True for any moving average. We tend to focus on the front end and almost forget about what drops out of the back end.

More on CPI and graphs of PCE (Fed's favorite) and PPI (wholesale prices) as well
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143027460#post20

Big Edit to add:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/ahead-of-tuesday-s-cpi-data-larry-summers-warns-further-inflation-reduction-will-be-harder-we-re-getting-closer-to-the-red-zone/ar-AA17njFG